The week: More than one storm brewing in the Black Sea, Brussels’ pressure and TurkStream revelations

The problem is, we are not there yet. In KInsights, we often talk about corruption and intentional malevolence on behalf of the authorities, but very often these are exacerbated by simple incompetence in governance.

Let's give two examples. First, it turns out that Tsarevo and Lozenets are the only townships in the area that have a local Flood Risk Management Plan. The most severely affected campsites - Arapya and Nestinarka, as well as the villages of Varvara, Sinemorets and Ahtopol, don't have such, although the event proves they are among the highly vulnerable risk areas.

It is also debatable whether anything tangible follows from these plans. On paper, Bulgaria also has a (much overdue) National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy from 2019. But in practice, every natural disaster reveals only unfinished business and overlooked problems.

The second example is even more absurd: the tragedy in Tsarevo showed that Bulgaria simply does not have a working early warning system - something it is obliged to have under EU rules. "Sirens are only turned on on Botev Day and during school alerts and never in real disasters," former ecology minister Borislav Sandov told bTV. His words were confirmed by former disaster response department director Nikolay Nikolov who said that it is even not clear who should judge and decide under what conditions the population need be warned.

Mr Nikolov's heir, Commissioner Alexander Dzhartov, told the National TV that the system is in the works and will be ready by the end of the year, but it is unclear why it would take so much time (it took Ukraine precisely 8 days to develop, implement and distribute such a system after the start of the war in 2022) or if it would have an effect.

In conclusion, if we want to adapt to the more frequent climate events like the Black Sea storm - but also other, man-made catastrophes - we not only need to curb corruption, but also make this community of ours more governable. Nature won't take any excuses.

Source: Dnevnik.bg

1. Politics this week:

Ramping up defense: better late than never?

After years of neglect, the Bulgarian army and navy might be finally getting some kudos from the authorities. This week saw hints of two long-awaited (and serially postponed) projects being expedited - the purchase of armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) for the land forces and the acquisition of anti-ship missiles.After the US State Department announced last Friday the approval of a possible export of 183 Stryker AFVs to Bulgaria worth up to USD 1.5 billion, on Monday the Ministry of Defense announced that a US delegation will arrive in Bulgaria this week to conduct negotiations for a quick conclusion of an interstate agreement for the purchase. The visit should have happened on Thursday and Friday, but the results - and the final price Sofia will have to pay for the US-made vehicles - might emerge later. It is suspected that there will be a discount over the BTRs Bulgaria should send to Ukraine, which will cut the price to USD 1 billion.

As for the anti-ship missiles, the news was broken by Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov himself during a televised Q&A on Facebook on Thursday, who said that the coast guard has to be armed ASAP "so that no one dares to approach our Black Sea cities", adding that "one has to respond with force to the threat of force." The parameters of this project are still unclear, but it is likely that - like the AFVs one - it won't go through a regular procurement process but rather via direct negotiation with a producer country.

State formally takes control of Rosenets oil port

Since we already are on the Black Sea topic, on Tuesday Minister of Transport Georgi Gvozdeykov announced that the state has taken control over the oil port of Rosenets near Burgas from the Bulgarian subsidiary of Lukoil - Neftochim. It will now be under the operational control of the Port Infrastructure state enterprise and Lukoil Neftochim will pay the state a port fee in the amount that is currently in place.

The move came soon after the MPs approved the nationalization earlier this summer. Mr Gvozdeykov assured the public that the state has the capacity to handle the management of the terminal and that no emergencies are expected. He also told bTV that he does not expect the state to pay penalties and lawsuits to the Russian company because the nationalization has been done within the framework of the EU sanctions against Russia.

Burying our heads in the sand no more: Bulgaria has to recognize same-sex unions

Despite the growing popularity of the annual Pride event in Sofia and acceptance of same-sex couples in polls, the Bulgarian state has repeatedly blocked any attempt to legalize - in one form or another - same sex relationships. This might have to change very soon after last Tuesday's ruling by the European Court of Human Rights' (ECHR) regarding the Koilova and Babulkova vs Bulgaria case. While the ruling does not actually force Sofia to recognize same-sex marriage, it obliges the state to create a legal framework to recognize and regulate the legal status of same-sex couples and provide legal protection for their privacy and family life. Denitsa Lyubenova, the lawyer for the same-sex couple, who got married in the UK in 2009, commented that "the decision is key and fundamental for the development of Bulgarian legislation in the field of equality and LGBTI rights."

2. Economy:

GDP growth for April - June nearly 2%

In the period April - June the economy grew by 1.9%, according to preliminary data of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) published on Thursday. This is a slight improvement on the flash estimate announced in mid-August, which pointed to a 1.8% year-on-year increase. At the same time, growth continues to slow down. Compared to the first three months of the year, the estimate of a 0.4% increase in GDP is confirmed. The agricultural sector's relative share of the economy's value added is 4.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the second quarter of 2022. The industrial sector decreased its relative share in the value added of the economy by 2 percentage points to 30%.

Figure:

933 BGN - the monthly minimum wage will jump by a record-breaking 20% from January next year after the adoption of a mechanism earlier this year, which links the lower wage threshold to the average wage in the country.

3. Business:

The number of new electric cars sold in Bulgaria between January and July this year is 1,039, which is 156% more than in the same period of 2022 according to data from the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA). The overall automobile market in the country is up 20.8% after almost 21 new passenger cars were sold from January to July 2023.

Packaging

One of the largest paper packaging companies in the world will acquire a third company in Bulgaria. After becoming the owner of plants in Kazanlak and Lukovit four years ago, the Irish group, which has a turnover of 12.8 billion euros for 2022, has now set its sights on part of the business of the bag-in-box manufacturer Artemis in Shumen.

Metals

Aluminum products manufacturer Alkomet will invest about BGN 137 million in its plant in Shumen over the next three years. Nearly half of the amount is for the expansion of the rolling mill, but funds are also earmarked for existing production facilities, the company confirmed.

4. Brussels:

The hearing before the European Parliament of the Bulgarian commissioner-designate Iliana Ivanova went without hiccups on Tuesday and it is likely that she will be appointed as Commissioner for innovation, research, culture, education and youth at some point today. Ms Ivanova will take over the seat from current foreign minister Mariya Gabriel, who left Brussels in a rush in order to negotiate the WCC-DB-GERB cabinet in May.

Ms Ivanova has solid experience on several EU posts, including as an auditor at the EU's Court of Auditors and this proved to play in her favor, as her former colleagues in the European Parliament were mostly supportive in their questions and attitude. She attracted positive attention with her written answers to the preliminary questions and made her opening speech in French, English, German and Bulgarian.

Commission to try changing Bulgarian's attitudes towards the euro

While many question marks still abound regarding Sofia's ability to comply with the requirements of the European Central Bank any time soon, Brussels has heeded the rising anti-Euro sentiments in the country and will try to combat them with infomercials. On Monday the office of the Commission in Sofia announced it is launching its pro-Euro information campaign, especially created for Bulgaria, which aims to bolster support for the adoption of the common EU currency.

The campaign, which has been developed with the support of the Ministry of Finance and the Bulgarian National Bank, and will include 10 PSA videos, aims to provide information on the country's process of joining the euro area and outline the main benefits of the country's accession to the currency union, including boosting international trade, investment and tourism. It comes in the aftermath of a recent Eurobarometer survey from August, which showed that support for the single currency in Bulgaria has declined substantially and is one of the lowest in the entire EU.

5. Energy:

Belene NPP equipment price spikes to BGN 2 billion

If the sale of the equipment for the Belene Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) goes through, Ukraine will have to pay nearly BGN 2 billion instead of the initially approved price of BGN 1.2 billion, which was set by the parliament earlier in July and which is the price Sofia had to pay Moscow for the equipment back in 2015. The information comes from an evaluation of the reactors, accompanying elements and the technical design of the plant, which the state ordered in July. It was carried out by the financial consultants from Mazars and part of it was seen by Capital weekly earlier this week.

Leaks prove how Borissov facilitated the creation of TurkStream

Turkstream - and its Bulgarian section, known as Balkan Stream - has long been touted as one of the main reasons for Russia's invasion of Ukraine because it allowed cutting Ukraine out of the gas routes to Western Europe. To this day, Russia has continued to receive huge amounts of money to fund its war machine from the profits it makes from the pipeline. It has also long been a public secret that the third government of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov went above and beyond to push the project through in record-breaking time, but now there are some documentary traces appearing that prove it. In the past week leaked documents published by the Anti-Corruption Fund (ACF) have shown the massive role played by the former Bulgarian cabinet in the building process, essentially paving the way for Russia's criminality in Europe. Evgeni Ahmedzai has summarized the key findings here.

6. Watch out for:

Person:

The adviser to Defense Minister Todor Tagarev filed his resignation after a week of scandals regarding his alleged abuse of emergency doctors in the Pirogov hospital. According to the hospital's claims - which Mr Emin denies - he tried to use his position in order to get quicker treatment for his child. Strangely, the scandal was picked up by various media, affiliated with Russia - including the RIA Novosti agency itself.

Date:

A week after President Rumen Radev called for a "national movement" in defense of 3 March as a national holiday, a group of pro-Russian and left-leaning intellectuals, politicians and public figures set up an initiative committee to collect signatures for a referendum on the matter.

Institution: