If you were to board a boat on Burgas port on the 1st of April and take a trip to the Italian coast, you can basically land on any spot there and just go to the local winery, no passport needed. At least that is the theoretical outcome of the frantic negotiations all the way up to New Year's Eve, which led to the half-acceptance of Bulgaria and Romania into Schengen.
To sum up what most of you already know: Austria half-heartedly accepted us in the borderless space, allowing for air and water access from 31st of March. This can be seen as a victory, if you're part of the government, or a frequent air-traveler (or a bored millionaire with a yacht), or a humiliation, if you are to consider the 5 Austrian requests we agreed to. After all, Sofia and Bucharest accepted that their admittance into the land border part of Schengen will hinge on "significant improvement in Austria's migrant situation". This is not only unfair between partners, but is geographically absurd, given that Austria already borders several other Schengen countries with migration pressure like Croatia and Italy.
But let's leave all of that aside for now. I want to point out several pressure points which will merit more attention in the months and years to come.
No, it's not the migrants, whom we already mentioned. According to the data, there are 22 thousand international protection requests in 2023 in Bulgaria (Ukrainians excluded), of which 5000 have been granted. Yet in the asylum centers there are less than 3000 people and they are already bursting out. This is a system that needs to change, but we will deal with that some other time.
Let's begin with the obvious focal points - the land borders with Turkey and Romania. The Turkish border which was for a long time secretly privatized is, at least in theory, under government control now. That is not entirely true, as the said private interests are still to be found in and around the borders, albeit with curtailed functions. The big goal for the government will be to show resolve and get rid of those interests once and for all. The good news is more Frontex presence and more money from the EU (The Border police already announced it is looking for up to 1200 more personnel).
Yet the problem there, together with the Romanian one, will be the delays. Bulgarian borders are already the slowest on the continent. Austrian demands will make them even more hellish. For at least a year (and probably more), Bulgaria will keep on being the gray zone between Fortress Europe and the Middle East.
This leads me to my second point. While land borders get stricter, water borders get freer. I would expect Varna and Burgas ports, as well as Danube ports to get renewed interest. They will be internal ports for the Schengen zone, after all. I have no idea yet how this will work, but just imagine - if you load your cargo on a boat it can get to Central Europe with no checks (supposedly), compared to at least 2 border crossings on land. Seems to me an interesting logistical option.
And last but not least, we need to think about the near future. If we do get invited for full membership, there is one road which will get jammed: Sofia-Vidin. Due to the infrastructural logic of Bulgaria, the traffic from the South will get passed to the nearest borderless corridor, which means all of it will transfer through Vidin and the Danube Bridge 2, towards Hungary. This means we need to finish ASAP the corridor and build the long-awaited rail link. Alas, while the first might happen in a year, the second will take more than 2 billion levs and will not happen in probably a decade.
Those are just the first obvious focal points that come to mind. I guess more will be clear in the months ahead if this situation continues for more than a year (which is my guess). Meanwhile, I'll be jumping on the first plane to Italy in April. You have to celebrate, after all. Happy new year to everyone!
This newsletter is helped by
Martin Dimitrov and Evgeni Ahmadzai
1. Politics this week:
The rotation is coming!As the date for the long-awaited rotation in the first (non)coalition government in Bulgarian history nears, so speculation mounts about its format and progress. Some key figures in the two formations in the "assemblage" have already began wondering about its future.
One thing is clear: ministerial heads will roll. Such a warning came from WCC's gray eminence Lena Borislavova, who said that "for me personally, there are ministries where the work can proceed faster," adding that they would first need to be approved by the WCC-DB plenum followed by rubber stamping from GERB for any changes to materialize.
These words come two months after GERB leader Boyko Borissov cited "7-8 ministries" as under-performing, without naming them. But from other comments it appears that regional minister Andrey Tsekov and sports minister Dimitar Iliev are in danger. Rest assured, Borissov said - he himself would not take over as PM and it is still expected that Mariya Gabriel would take up the position, the GERB leader said on Tuesday. Peevski is not lining up for a post, either.
Speaking of Peevski, he has a new partner
Every Christmas Bulgarian media and politicos await the transcript of the speech that Turkish party MRF honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan makes at the movement's end-of-the-year party. There, he usually outlines the road that his formation would take in coming months, which often coincides with important shake-ups in Bulgarian politics.This year, no such speech appeared, but instead the MRF published Dogan's formula for "finding a solution for the future development of the party."
According to the letter, Magnitsky-sanctioned MP Delyan Peevski will be nominated as leader of the MRF at the upcoming national conference on February 24, but he will have to share power with another representative of the movement - MP Dzhevdet Chakarov.
Make no mistake: that's a blow
Chakarov is an old dog, ex-minister from the 2000s and a close ally of Dogan. He would handle an important part of the MRF's portfolio, including relations with Turkey, with ALDE in Brussels and with the voters in MRF's "traditional regions," while Peevski would take care of MRF's parliamentary activity and "expanding its electoral presence." Meaning, basically, he will oversee the continued takeover of Roma ghettos in big cities and will call the shots in Parliament.
This decision in practice means that Dogan refuses to give all party power in the MRF to the man he personally mentored - Peevski. Interestingly, in his letter the honorary chairman openly criticizes his attempt at a power grab. The question from now on is whether the sanctioned oligarch would acquiesce to the leader's wishes - or try to put an end to Dogan's rule.
2. Economy:
Exhale: 2023 ends with a deficit under 3%The state budget deficit at the end of December amounted to 2.2% according to European methodology and 2.8% on a cash basis according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance. Budget 2023 was planned at a 2.5% deficit on a cash basis. That means there has been an improvement on the indicator, which is supervised by Brussels and Frankfurt for the purposes of deciding on Bulgaria's eventual eurozone membership.
More impressive still is that the result has been achieved even though Bulgaria did not receive the expected second payment under the Recovery and Resilience Plan and with advance payments of 1.2 billion levs for municipal projects included.
Preliminary figures suggest that there is still an underspending, and the VAT revenue backlog appears never to have been fully caught up.
Figures:
Is the profit of banks by November 2023, which is a stunning 75% year-on-year growth according to National Bank data.
4. Business:
Food manufacturingThe agricultural group announced it will construct a 75 million euro sunflower oil factory in the town of Popovo by 2027. Its capacity will be 250-300,000 tons per year and 90% will be for export. Financing is provided by the EIB and UBB, 25% of the investment will be the holding's funds.
Pilko
The meat processing enterprise from Razgrad announced a 3.9 million levs investment to replace production equipment and construct photovoltaic power plants. Half of the amount is a subsidy under the Rural Development Programme 2014-2020.
5. Energy
Most of it still comes from coal and nuclear2023 has several highlights: the lowest generation and consumption of electricity in the last 5 years, a collapse in exports, and a drastic reduction in the share of coal and records in solar and wind plants.
After several years of chaos due to covid lockdowns and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, last year the sector calmed down, prices reverted to normal and the data is truly useful for what comes next. It is important to mention the solar boom and the dying function of coal-fired power plants, which due to the carbon allowances cannot flourish under normal market conditions.
The balance sheet shows that at the end of the year ⅔ of the produced electricity still came from two sources - coal and nuclear power plants.
The declining production output was mostly due to coal plants, which operated 43% less than the previous year and a record low overall for the last five, with levels lower than the lockdown-filled 2020. Coal is also one of the reasons for the huge collapse in exports to the countries around Bulgaria on an annual basis - 70% down.
6. Watch out for:
Person:This is the new Turkish ambassador to Bulgaria who will succeed Aylin Sekizkok. His name was announced by the Turkish Foreign Minister on 24 December. Until now, Uyanik headed the foreign minister's office and before that he had been Turkey's consul general in Geneva.
Company:
NexoThe Bulgarian crypto bank, which was surprisingly raided by the State Prosecution around this time last year over money laundering accusations, had the case against its founders dropped over absent evidence of criminal activity. That is the end of one of many failed politically motivated investigations into the state institution that was led by Ivan Geshev.
Location:
Washington, DCWe Continue the Change have hired the lobbying firm Manatos & Manatos to work on their behalf in the US capital. The price of the contract is 100 000 dollars, yet it is not entirely clear what's the goal of the whole thing. Early rumors say it's to highlight the anti-corruption fight WCC claim to be leading around here. My logic is that if you need a lobbyist to assure someone you're an anti-corruption hero, you're doing something wrong. But I might be wrong here
Date:
Mid-February
Beware! Finally, after years of not utilizing this already existing technical capacity, the cameras of the Road Infrastructure Agency (RIA) will begin detecting speeding on the country's roads from mid-February or March. After this date offenders will be sanctioned.Конвулсии - convulsions
Is how the Interior Ministry described the reason for the death of a 55-year-old driver, who got into a chase with police in Stara Zagora before New Year, crashed into another vehicle and then was pulled out of the car. The FB videos show the policemen hitting him and lying on top of him. Forensics experts say that the man didn't have a chance to breathe because 5 policemen, with a combined weight of 400 kilos, were smothering him. In other words, he was probably suffocated.Even more scandalous is the police kept quiet on the case until the videos appeared and then tried to avoid any responsibility for the driver's death. This is not the first such tragedy and hopefully this will turn into Bulgaria's "I can't breathe" moment.
If you were to board a boat on Burgas port on the 1st of April and take a trip to the Italian coast, you can basically land on any spot there and just go to the local winery, no passport needed. At least that is the theoretical outcome of the frantic negotiations all the way up to New Year's Eve, which led to the half-acceptance of Bulgaria and Romania into Schengen.
To sum up what most of you already know: Austria half-heartedly accepted us in the borderless space, allowing for air and water access from 31st of March. This can be seen as a victory, if you're part of the government, or a frequent air-traveler (or a bored millionaire with a yacht), or a humiliation, if you are to consider the 5 Austrian requests we agreed to. After all, Sofia and Bucharest accepted that their admittance into the land border part of Schengen will hinge on "significant improvement in Austria's migrant situation". This is not only unfair between partners, but is geographically absurd, given that Austria already borders several other Schengen countries with migration pressure like Croatia and Italy.
