Bulgaria is very likely heading to the polls yet again after the first rotating cabinet of Nikolay Denkov (WCC) and Mariya Gabriel (GERB) failed to negotiate the premiership transition. After two weeks of negotiations, during which periods of silence alternated with very public attacks and accusations of sabotage coming from both sides (but initiated by Borissov's party), on Monday PM-designate Gabriel informed the Parliament that she would no longer attempt to gain MPs' approval for her proposed cabinet.
At an emergency briefing on Sunday, Gabriel announced that she was withdrawing her candidacy for prime minister and that there would be early parliamentary elections. Her statement came amid renewed talks between the governing partners on Friday, which continued throughout the weekend.
The announcement was immediately followed by a press release from MRF in which the formation's co-chairman Delyan Peevski also called for early elections. "We from the MRF declare that we will not support a government with a second mandate, nominated by WCC-DB. Such a government is impossible without GERB, and attempts to form some kind of arithmetic majority, including anti-European parties and specifically Revival, would be absolutely unprincipled," Peevski said in his position.
In an address on BNT later, outgoing PM Nikolay Denkov recalled that nine months ago the two formations had voted for a government for a period of 18 months, agreeing that there would be a rotation only of prime ministers, and that ministers would be replaced only by mutual agreement. "Negotiations have shown that we do not have a mutual agreement to change ministers," Denkov said, appealing to GERB to respect the agreement of nine months ago and vote for the same cabinet they approved last year, only with Gabriel as PM. His plea went unanswered.
GERB accuses WCC-DB of political racketeering
According to Gabriel, the final rift had come because of a new condition set by WCC-DB in the course of the renewed talks - the replacement of Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov, who is formally from the quota of the reformist forces, but has repeatedly demonstrated closer ties with GERB and MRF.
Gabriel pointed out that GERB had made many concessions during the negotiations. "Instead of this being appreciated, a new demand was received. We say no to setting new conditions repeatedly," Gabriel said on Sunday. She clarified that during the renewed negotiations her party had given up its bid to replace Defense Minister Todor Tagarev and Energy Minister Rumen Radev with GERB candidates. Replacing them was one of the things that caused disputes in the two negotiating teams until the last moment before the negotiations were frozen.
Denitsa Sacheva from the GERB negotiating team called WCC-DB's new demand for the replacement of the Interior Minister "a political stunt that must be stopped" and clarified that the entire GERB parliamentary group and the party were behind the decision to suspend negotiations.
What's coming next?
From Gabriel's statement on Sunday, it became clear that on Monday she will deposit in parliament a letter renouncing her nomination for PM - which she did. This effectively unties the hands of President Rumen Radev to continue the constitutional procedure of handing the mandate to the second political force in the National Assembly, WCC-DB.
Gabriel ruled out the option of GERB continuing talks with its partners when the mandate goes to them, as well as with the third mandate, which the head of state will hand to one of the other formations in parliament at his own choosing. With WCC-DB alienated and no other party likely to gather a majority around it, this would mean that Bulgaria is heading towards early parliamentary elections.
At this stage, it is difficult to say when they will take place, because the third mandate is not handed to a nominated PM, but to a parliamentary group that has to nominate a PM, and there is no deadline for this. By dragging down the negotiations for the first mandate GERB indicated it does not want the elections to take place alongside the European Parliament vote, due on 9 June, but a few weeks later. The likely expectation is that going to the polls twice in a few weeks would deter fringe voters and serve the parties with stronger core electorate, i.e. GERB and MRF.
Who will rule in the meantime?
Because of the latest constitutional changes, which dramatically changed the institute of the caretaker government as Bulgaria knew it in the past 33 years and abolished the dissolution of parliament in case of a failed cabinet negotiation, what comes next is a big unknown. The constitutional changes that GERB, WCC-DB and MRF voted on are murky and the parties from the majority never passed a law to regulate the new caretaker cabinet.
According to the amendments adopted last autumn, if no agreement is reached on forming a government, the president appoints a caretaker cabinet after consultations with the parliamentary groups. The composition of the cabinet is proposed by his nominee for caretaker PM, who can only be someone holding one of the public offices fixed in the constitution - the president of the National Assembly, the president of the Court of Auditors or his deputies, the governor and sub-governors of the National Bank, the ombudsman or his deputies.
Most of these positions are held by people from, or close to, GERB. The most likely candidate is the head of Parliament Rossen Zhelyazkov from Borissov's party. This means that the caretaker cabinet will organize the early vote in a completely unregulated legal environment which will be loyal to GERB.
Bulgaria is very likely heading to the polls yet again after the first rotating cabinet of Nikolay Denkov (WCC) and Mariya Gabriel (GERB) failed to negotiate the premiership transition. After two weeks of negotiations, during which periods of silence alternated with very public attacks and accusations of sabotage coming from both sides (but initiated by Borissov's party), on Monday PM-designate Gabriel informed the Parliament that she would no longer attempt to gain MPs' approval for her proposed cabinet.
At an emergency briefing on Sunday, Gabriel announced that she was withdrawing her candidacy for prime minister and that there would be early parliamentary elections. Her statement came amid renewed talks between the governing partners on Friday, which continued throughout the weekend.
