With just under two weeks left before the early election - the sixth national vote in the span of three years - the parties' relatively feckless campaigns seem predominantly focused on their core electorates. The reason - apart from the fact that all main players were (albeit reluctantly) on the same side for the past ten months - is that the party leaders appear reluctant to come clean about a feasible formula for the next government.
Although the experience so far shows that all parties can be quite flexible in their coalition preferences before and after the elections, so far most of the safe participants in the 50th National Assembly are sticking to the familiar strategy - telling their voters what they want to hear and excluding "unnecessary" details. The small groupings talk about a programme government and the formation of a new constitutional majority. GERB, on the other hand, is heralding the return of Boyko Borissov as prime minister in a cabinet to serve a full four-year term. In this scenario, MRF is positioning itself as an equal partner in power and WCC-DB - as an opposition. So what are the realistic scenarios?
Are GERB and MRF warming up for a coalition?
So far, GERB leader Boyko Borissov has led three governments and has always ruled with the help of other political forces, but with the clear dominance of his party in parliament. This time around, this is not going to happen - while his party has a comfortable lead of about quarter of the vote, its results are still a far cry from the dominant days when GERB had 117 MPs (in 2009-2013) or the less successful, but ultimately - more stable Borissov-3 cabinet of 2017-2021, when it held 95 seats. It is likely that Borissov's faction will send about 72-75 MPs.
Now the pollsters predict a relatively small difference between the second, third and fourth parties - WCC-DB, MRF and Vazrazdhane, which are all placed around the 15% mark; this will translate into 40-45 MPs each. The other safe parties in the next parliament are BSP and TISP. According to some polls, GERB and MRF may even end up with enough MPs to have the necessary majority to vote for a government - 121, but such a scenario still looks unlikely. This signifies two realistic alternatives for a three-way coalition: either a second attempt at an "Euro-Atlantic assemblage" with WCC-DB or attracting Slavi Trifonov's TISP.
Are WCC-DB going to fall for it once again?
The first option now seems rather unlikely, as both the reformists and GERB have imposed impossible conditions on the other side. On 23 May, the deputy chairperson of the GERB parliamentary group Raya Nazaryan said in a TV interview that the only way for her party to collaborate with WCC-DB after the elections is if the reformists give up Assen Vassilev as finance minister. So far, the coalition has given no sign of acceding to such a demand.
On the contrary, on 27 May Vassilev himself upped the ante by saying that his faction would not enter into coalitions with GERB and MRF, while they are still headed by Boyko Borissov and Delyan Peevski, respectively. After almost 10 months of joint rule with the two parties, the ex-Finance Minister declared that he had come to realize that the three formations have very different visions for Bulgaria.
More importantly, this statement effectively reversed WCC-DB's position that joint actions with GERB are only possible if Borissov dissociates himself from the MRF and denounces Peevski. In any case, this seemed like wishful thinking - over the past few weeks, the statements of Borissov and Peevski seem almost identical.
Peevski warms up for real power
It is clear from the recent statements of Peevski, who has been sanctioned for corruption by the USA and the UK, that he prizes a leading role in the next government. Over the last month, he went out of his way to "advise" the caretaker ministers - first on a controversial decision by the cabinet to allow a private children's hospital, then on the salaries of university professors, and this week - on the issue of queues at the border crossing near Vidin.
It seems that Borissov does not mind allowing him such liberties. A few days ago, he even praised him during a visit to Kardzhali, where he declared that Peevski and GERB's Tsveta Karayancheva, who are leaders of the lists in the district, will do a lot for the town. "We will do everything possible to make people feel good wherever GERB and MRF have mayors."
Who will be Prime Minister?
Last, but not least, comes the question of who will lead the next cabinet, regardless of whether it is backed by MRF alone or by a more colorful array of parties. It seems that Borissov and part of his entourage are toying with the idea of a Borissov-4 cabinet, with the party leader becoming Prime Minister once again. At least this is the impression left by the statements of high-level cadres during meetings with sympathizers around the country. This contradicts Borissov's statement a year ago that he does not want to be PM again but everyone knows his ability to change his mind in line with circumstances.
There are even official rumors coming from WCC-DB that Delyan Peevski himself might be cosying up to the idea of becoming PM - an option that is too outlandish, as it would surely end up in street protests. As for the other exotic ideas of BSP ("program cabinet"), Vazrazhdane ("anti-EU/NATO cabinet") and TISP (reversal-of-the-constitutional-amendments cabinet), all seem just as unlikely. This would mean that another "expert" cabinet, or one very similar to the Glavchev caretaker government - on GERB's short leash - might be the only viable options.
In any case, as the parties are simply not discussing such matters publicly, the voters once again remain beholden to the back-stage negotiations that will decide their future. So don't be too surprised when you see a record-low turnout two weeks from now.
With just under two weeks left before the early election - the sixth national vote in the span of three years - the parties' relatively feckless campaigns seem predominantly focused on their core electorates. The reason - apart from the fact that all main players were (albeit reluctantly) on the same side for the past ten months - is that the party leaders appear reluctant to come clean about a feasible formula for the next government.
Although the experience so far shows that all parties can be quite flexible in their coalition preferences before and after the elections, so far most of the safe participants in the 50th National Assembly are sticking to the familiar strategy - telling their voters what they want to hear and excluding "unnecessary" details. The small groupings talk about a programme government and the formation of a new constitutional majority. GERB, on the other hand, is heralding the return of Boyko Borissov as prime minister in a cabinet to serve a full four-year term. In this scenario, MRF is positioning itself as an equal partner in power and WCC-DB - as an opposition. So what are the realistic scenarios?
