It is an investor's rule of thumb that expectations on the stock exchange are as important as fundamentals. In politics, this rule is just as valid. In 2009 Bulgaria's socialist-led government lost the elections, even though only two years before it had successfully completed Bulgaria's accession into the EU, while the economy was booming. But the general feeling of malaise and corruption allegations easily ruined the fundamentals.
Expectations have now come to haunt GERB, the centre-right party that has been in power almost uninterruptedly since 2009. Bulgaria's economy is finally growing steadily, unemployment is at record lows, the government has finally understood that education matters and has begun investing in it Still, the general feeling is that something is rotten in the country: indignation at the widespread nepotism, political interference in the judiciary and business and outright corruption is reflected in the falling approval ratings of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov.
It was expected that the European elections on 26 May would have confirmed this downward trend. This didn't happen, partly because there is no viable opposition in Bulgaria, and partly because GERB successfully employed some shady "elections techniques".
But the election win doesn't mean that GERB will be rising from the ashes. Quite the contrary. The slow erosion of the ruling party's electoral base, the widespread search for an alternative recorded by all recent opinion polls and the inability of Mr Borissov to offer a fresh political approach show that Bulgaria is ripe for change. Very few optimists, however, would bet that what follows will usher in positive changes.
It is an investor's rule of thumb that expectations on the stock exchange are as important as fundamentals. In politics, this rule is just as valid. In 2009 Bulgaria's socialist-led government lost the elections, even though only two years before it had successfully completed Bulgaria's accession into the EU, while the economy was booming. But the general feeling of malaise and corruption allegations easily ruined the fundamentals.
Expectations have now come to haunt GERB, the centre-right party that has been in power almost uninterruptedly since 2009. Bulgaria's economy is finally growing steadily, unemployment is at record lows, the government has finally understood that education matters and has begun investing in it Still, the general feeling is that something is rotten in the country: indignation at the widespread nepotism, political interference in the judiciary and business and outright corruption is reflected in the falling approval ratings of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov.
