"If elections were held now, GERB would be the leading political force, followed by MRF - New Beginning." This announcement by Gallup International Balkan, based on the results of a recent survey, shook up the political media landscape at the beginning of last week. Two days later, GERB leader Boyko Borissov announced to journalists that he would become prime minister again when he wanted to, without being questioned on the matter.
The timing of the two announcements raises the question of whether new elections are looming and then a new political reality to which people will have to adjust. The resurrected 20-year status quo does not leave much room for imagination, and nobody knows what surprises can be expected. In fact, there is only one intrigue left - when Borissov and the leader of MRF - New Beginning Delyan Peevski will officially become a ruling tandem.
In any case, both, but especially Borissov, have abandoned their recent roles as having nothing to do with each other. The transformation of Rosen Zhelyazkov's government into a minority cabinet became the reason for Peevski's formal adoption as part of the majority. Just like Dimitar Glavchev's caretaker cabinets, the Zhelyazkov one unquestioningly carries out Peevski's wishes.
If Borissov and Peevski are preparing to govern together, this does not mean that they will have "stepped out of character." The mimicry in the balance of their powers will continue indefinitely. Borissov's subordinate position is evident, but he still has a trump card-the fact that Peevski needs GERB's electoral scale to achieve his goals. In this sense, the indications that "MRF - New Beginning is now the second political force" are primarily a threat to GERB's status.
New elections in the fall, after which Borissov would be the PM who led the country into the eurozone, are not out of the question and, at first glance, seem easy to "arrange." But they will come at a price that the GERB leader has so far tried to avoid at all costs.
Here we must recall that the united MRF came second in the elections in June last year, after Peevski became its co-chair. GERB, which won as expected, again did not have a majority, and a coalition with the second force seemed inevitable. Borissov's "salvation" came from Ahmed Dogan, who split the movement so that it would not receive a second mandate to form a government after the failure of the first. The survey now published by Gallup is a direct analogy to the situation at that time. The more significant difference is that the MRF is de jure and increasingly de facto solely Peevski's, and there is no longer an option for salvation for GERB's leader.
Could "New Beginning" be the second force? Yes
"We cannot rule out such an outcome in the next election campaign," Dobromir Zhivkov, head of the Market Links agency, says. He believes that there are currently no signs of a new early election this year.
"However, the activization of MRF - New Beginning and Mr. Peevski is striking. The growth in local areas, evidenced by numerous photos of mayors with him, personnel changes in key regulators and services suggests that the process of concentrating political and institutional influence in one figure is moving to the next stage. If we add to this picture the repeatedly stated political ambitions of the party leader, it would not be surprising if we soon reach a point where Delyan Peevski calls for early elections to try to increase his influence in the next parliament and become the main coalition partner of GERB. At the moment, it is difficult to identify another major winner. GERB and Mr. Borissov seem to be in a weakened position, not only because of the fragmentation in the National Assembly, but also because of the expansion of New Beginning in various directions," the sociologist points out.
Certainly, a prerequisite for Peevski to achieve second place is to maintain the low voter turnout of the last few elections and keep his competitive advantages - pressing on political opponents at local level through his judicial influence, as well as focusing on minority areas and his ability to make the state institutions ignore the problematic vote counting in them.
What does this mean?
In the case of new elections, the benefits for Peevski will be direct, but also problematic. He will have to significantly increase the scope of the methods he uses to subjugate local and central government, as well as large parts of the business sector. His freedom of action is unlimited because he has nothing to lose in terms of his reputation.
The state apparatus is already in such a sorry state that every institutional action reveals what Peevski has actually demanded. The GERB, BSP, and TISP groups vote in parliament as an appendage of the MRF - New Beginning. The prosecutor's office does nothing but initiate or terminate cases according to the orders of its leader. The key administrative courts, which are supposed to protect the public interest, have become a rubber stamp for abuses of power.
It is safe to say that the date of the next early elections will be decided by the New Beginning leader. The reason could be a vote of no confidence in the Zhelyazkov cabinet or some dissatisfaction with its work. Joining the eurozone may crown the "co-presidency" of Borissov and Peevski in power, but the story will not end there. Just as it did not end with the co-presidency of the MRF. And next year's presidential elections will reflect the effects of events that have unfolded in the meantime.
Dimitar Ganev from the Trend agency believes that the ruling majority has no interest in early elections this year. In his words, none of the formations that are part of the so-called triple coalition would gain a better result. He believes that there is also a more serious argument against such a move - the possible political project of President Rumen Radev. Among those who have no interest in "giving him the opportunity to run for election before his term has ended," the sociologist lists GERB, BSP, TISP, and MRF - New Beginning. "If there is anyone stronger than Borissov and Peevski on the field, it could be Radev," Ganev says.
According to Dobromir Zhivkov of Market Links, if new elections are held, voter turnout will be decisive for the outcome. "If only the party cores become active, we could expect a new fragmented parliament, but also a consolidation of many of the votes of the APS (Dogan's formation - ed.) in favor of MRF - New Beginning and an increase in the importance of the latter and of Mr. Peevski personally, accompanied by a demand for real participation in power. In such a situation, it is not out of the question that democracy in our country will face its next major test. The reasons for this are not only the lack of a functioning judiciary, and dysfunctional institutions, but also the political legitimacy of any government voted in after elections whose quality has been seriously compromised," the sociologist commented.
As a prerequisite for some normalization of political representation and political life in the country, he envisions a scenario with high voter turnout, which will reduce the weight of bought and controlled votes.
"If elections were held now, GERB would be the leading political force, followed by MRF - New Beginning." This announcement by Gallup International Balkan, based on the results of a recent survey, shook up the political media landscape at the beginning of last week. Two days later, GERB leader Boyko Borissov announced to journalists that he would become prime minister again when he wanted to, without being questioned on the matter.
The timing of the two announcements raises the question of whether new elections are looming and then a new political reality to which people will have to adjust. The resurrected 20-year status quo does not leave much room for imagination, and nobody knows what surprises can be expected. In fact, there is only one intrigue left - when Borissov and the leader of MRF - New Beginning Delyan Peevski will officially become a ruling tandem.
