The week: The hottest destination - the Black Sea

Bulgaria has 6 big regions (in Eurostat classification they are NUTS 2) and 4 of them are growing, 2 are shrinking. The two that are shrinking are, predictably, the NorthWest and the Center North. And they are shrinking fast. While they've lost between 1 and 2 % of their population, compared to 2022, the other 4 regions are growing, but just by slightly under 0.5%. But regional numbers don't tell us much - they don't reveal whether the people in the 2 North regions died or moved, or whether they moved to a different region. It's impossible to do politics on that basis - the only sure conclusion is that those two regions need far more attention (for example, there is only one university in the two regions).

So let's go down a notch. At county level, Bulgaria has 28 units, and of them, 5 are growing. They are the ones with the 4 biggest cities - Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas, plus the one with the biggest number of Bulgarian Turks - Kardzhali. Some, like Haskovo and Kuystendil and Sliven, are on the edge of turning the page. This tells us a bit more: obviously, the population is flocking to big centers, or at least around them and some places are doing some things right (Sliven has the highest birth rate not only in Bulgaria but in most of the EU). But it's still very vague.

We need to zoom in at municipal level. Here is where it gets really interesting. There are a lot more municipalities that are growing than you'd expect. Many of them are surrounded by big cities so it's a natural process of moving out, while still remaining connected. But there is another interesting trend worth noting: the Black Sea regions are generally on the positive side. In both Varna and Burgas counties, the municipalities bordering the sea are registering growth, with a few exceptions.

And we're not only talking about the two big cities. In Burgas, where there are far more developed small municipalities, 6 out of 13 are registering growth. I am pretty sure that is the best ratio in the country. And here we get to the one I mentioned at the beginning.

Nesebar is, I would argue, the most successful Bulgarian municipality in terms of attracting people. It is the only one out of 265 municipalities that is growing in the 2001, 2011 and in the 2021 census. You would, on the face of it, say that this is probably people buying real estate and registering there for tax purposes. Some of that might be true. But look at the age distribution.

If you take the difference between 2021 and 2024 population, Nesebar is the only one in Burgas county (and I assume, in the country), which is registering growth in virtually every age group from 10 to 69. And it is not a small growth. For example, it has 1043 more children in the group 10-19, for a place with a little over 33,000 people. That's quite astonishing and merits a further look, which I promise, will happen.

Guess we will need to visit the Black Sea soon.

Politics this week:

There is nothing that GERB's leader Boyko Borissov loves better than a good intrigue. This week, for no apparent reason he fabricated a "scandal" over a routine technical problem with the first Bulgarian F-16 Block 70 fighter jet. This was certainly an attempt to undermine President Rumen Radev. This happened during the European People's Party (EPP) congress in Valencia, where the ex-PM accused the president of trying to spread a rumor about the technical condition of the F-16 and threatened that if the information was true, he would demand the dismissal of the head of the Air Force, who, according to him, is close to the head of state.

So wait

What stuck from the statement, however, was the allegation that there was some problem with the fighter jet. It quickly permeated all media outlets. Subsequently, the Defense Minister himself dismissed the information that the fighter was "broken", saying that it had a so-called failure - something rather routine for aviation, in which the aircraft is temporarily grounded until the problem is fixed.

A sabotage or a rumor gone awry

Despite the attempt to inject reason into the conversation, Borissov's attack was reinforced with the insinuation by various GERB talking heads that the issue could be deliberate sabotage by people in the Air Force loyal to the President (and, by extension - Russia). The accusation went so far that even the European Commission spokesperson promised to follow developments closely, while the parliamentary committee for control over special services decided to convene over the case, even though the sabotage version was officially and categorically rejected by the head of the MoD, the chief of defense and the air force commander.

Religion in schools - it's back

The New Patriarch Daniil (who himself merits a profile here) has won yet another battle. Out of nowhere the Ministry of Education suddenly announced some weeks ago plans to officiate a new religious class in the high school curriculum. During a controversial public hearing last week, it transpired that - most likely - children will have to choose between Orthodox Christianity, Islam and ethics.

A virtuous circle

The unclear wording of the Ministry and the vagueness of exactly which virtues will be taught, who has selected them, and on what principle, have raised serious questions about the motives for this change and the approach to its implementation. The lack of transparency created the impression that the decision was not the result of an educational strategy but of a political agreement between the ministry and key stakeholders like the Orthodox Church. In any case, as of now, all we know is that the new subject would be called "Virtues" but it is unclear which exact virtues it will teach.

Economy:

The state budget is withholding payments to the municipal investment program and there are more than 500 million levs of unpaid invoices already. That was the signal the National Association of Municipalities gave this week. Not a single payment has been made this year, even though more than 1.6 billion are earmarked for that in the budget.

How big of a deal is it?

Very. Many municipalities can't continue with their projects and this means a countrywide freeze, probably lawsuits by the companies involved, and so on. The situation is likely severe, since the Association is usually silent and dares not critique the government.

Dark omens ahead

But it also raises the question of why those payments are not made. One of the explanations is probably the eurozone entry - all the cash available was hoarded to meet the criteria. But there is also the possibility that this will be used as a stick to punish disobedient mayors: if you don't fall in line, there will be no money. This means we've regressed to exactly 5 years ago, at the worst period of the previous Borissov administration.

Figures:

Will be economic growth this year, predicts the Ministry of Finance.

1.9 billion levs

After the state accumulated a budget deficit of 1.9 billion levs in the first three months of the year, the deficit stopped growing in April and remained at the same level. The amount represents 0.9% of the projected GDP for 2025, according to preliminary data.

100 million levs

The planned investment into the Kapitan Andreevo border crossing between Bulgaria and Turkey, which would lead to 25% higher vehicle throughput.

Business:

The German company bought a plant with 200 acres of land near Plovdiv from Pierer & Maxcom Mobilities for 68.5 million. The factory was supposed to produce electric bicycles, but the crisis in the sector thwarted the plans and the new owner is expected to use the building for two of its industries - concrete mixers and air-conditioning systems.

IT

Nearly a year after the Bulgarian Stock Exchange announced the dual listing segment on the Sofia and Frankfurt stock exchanges, Sirma Group Holding became the second company that will move its securities to the latter. It is not clear when the technology company's shares will start trading in Frankfurt, but it is expected that it will happen in the next 6-9 months.

Energy:

Unit 5 of the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shut down on 5 May for scheduled annual maintenance and refueling. During the refurbishment period, which is expected to be completed by mid-June, complex preventive maintenance activities, as well as upgrades and repairs to existing equipment and systems, will be carried out. Part of the planned operations is the continuation of the phased transition to the new type of US nuclear fuel in the reactor, which began in 2024. As part of this process, new Westinghouse-manufactured RWFA-type cartridges will be loaded, which was already started last year. The shutdown of nuclear power will have a direct impact on electricity prices and especially the operation of solar plants. In recent months, they have been deliberately curtailed as power has traded at negative prices during the midday and afternoon hours due to huge production and little demand.

Watch out for:

The former CEO of Nova Broadcasting Group and current PFF chief investment officer, as well as long-time PPF CFO Katarzyna Iraskova will become the duo that will replace Jiri Smejc, who will step down as CEO of the largest Czech investment group PPF in June at the end of his three-year term. He was brought in by the family of late founder Petr Kellner to refocus the group's business owner bTV and co-owner Yettel.

Company

After a long period of survival, the state-owned arms manufacturer Vazov Machine-Building Plants (VMZ) has exploded in recent years amid military conflicts and strong demand. Therefore, its rising financial results for the first quarter of 2025 are no surprise. The orders to be fulfilled by the end of the year will allow the Sopot plant to reach a turnover of around 1 billion levs. Sales for 2024 are likely to be similar, judging by the figures for the first three quarters, but the final annual report has not yet been published. For 2023, turnover was also a record - more than 900 million levs. So this achievement will clearly be surpassed.

Date:

This weekend the capital will host for the 15th time its Sofia Science Festival. There, several French and Bulgarian scientists will answer a plethora of questions, including: How did scientific knowledge stimulate the imagination of 20th century science fiction writers and how did they imagine fantastic worlds based on the discoveries of their time? What do we know about the Thracians and what do the recent discoveries of historians and archaeologists tell us? Sofia Tech Park will host this free event, with translation provided. Find out more here.

Word of the week:

The recent prominence of controversial British crime drama Adolescence, combined with an eerily similar case of a teenager killing another in Haskovo, triggered a widespread wave of complaints against the "lokali", or locals - groups of young boys, often dressed in black, who abuse people to gain respect rather than any material benefit. While there are certainly more than enough violent young men roaming the streets, anyone who has seen or read Clockwork Orange knows that the only new thing about the locals compared to earlier violent, youth gangs, are their outfits.

Zen of the week

And on that point, we leave you with this picture of Plovdiv mayor amidst the rubble of a cinema he wants to renovate.

Source: Capital.bg