Bulgaria bucks global trend with optimistic growth forecast
Bulgaria's economy is still tipped to have moderate growth against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty from the global trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite the worsening forecast for the world economy most international and local institutions still forecast stable economic growth for Bulgaria with some even anticipating an acceleration in GDP expansion. Current projections estimate Bulgaria's economy will grow between 2.4% and just over 3% this year-similar to the 2.8% growth recorded last year.Analysts also highlight the expected eurozone accession in early 2026, which will eliminate currency risk for banks and enhance liquidity support from the Bulgarian National Bank. While Moody's notes risks from rapid mortgage growth and rising property prices, it acknowledges that regulatory measures have largely curbed the riskiest lending practices.
Capital levels are expected to remain strong, and although profitability may dip slightly in 2025 due to falling interest rates, it should stay well above the EU average and later benefit further from eurozone membership.
Bulgaria bucks global trend with optimistic growth forecast
Bulgaria's economy is still tipped to have moderate growth against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty from the global trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite the worsening forecast for the world economy most international and local institutions still forecast stable economic growth for Bulgaria with some even anticipating an acceleration in GDP expansion.