The week: Belgrade, Budapest and the perils of short-memory

For one, everyone protesting right now is having it harder than us. Both Vucic's and Victor Orban's regimes are much harsher and far more rigidly authoritarian than Bulgaria's. Vucic used a sound cannon against protesters. And Orban called the people on the street and the media "bugs". That is much closer to the big authoritarian black hole around here - Turkey, where they just arrested the leader of the opposition and mayor of Istanbul.

Both countries are also behind us in terms of translating street power into a political one. In Hungary the opposition leader Magyar, smeared with recordings, is still to oust Fidesz. In Serbia, there is still no rallying figurehead - students have been very careful not to veer politically and stay the course.

But see, we've been there and done that. We've had a student uprising without political representation. We then went full on and almost managed to get rid of Borissov and Peevski. "Almost" is the keyword here. This is the other lesson for Belgrade and Budapest. Even if you manage to topple the leader, the whole structure they have been creating for the past decade and more will still be there. And they will be working against the new power. And slowly, but surely, kill from the inside the energy for reform. It happened in Slovakia. It happened here. And it almost sucked the oxygen out of the protest movement.

For that is the big win for autocrats: to kill the energy of the street. It's a much more sinister way of winning.

But here's another lesson, this time for me and for us. Up until last week I was convinced that after 4 years of a failed revolution, and without a rallying force such as the pandemic fatigue, there was no energy left to protest.

But the scenes from Belgrade and Budapest got me thinking I might be wrong. Given the right circumstances and the right trigger, the whole edifice here can collapse again. So that's my final point for this week. On the face of it, Bulgaria looks very calm. An island of peace amongst a sea of hurricanes. Yet it's not. This is false calm. This is not the stability of choice, this is the surface of a swamp gone quiet.

Nothing here has changed and things have only gotten worse. Corruption is still rife, nobody goes to jail, the prosecution is a sham, eurofunds go missing, we've entirely given up on building infrastructure (in human lifespans, that is). And elections - that last valve - have been compromised beyond repair.

So who knows? A spark from somewhere just might ignite the whole thing. All it took last time was a rubber boat and 3 men with a camera. Only this time, god knows where it will end.

Politics this week:

It took a tragedy to lift Bulgarian-N. Macedonian relations from their lowest point in decades. After the worst-ever nightclub fire claimed more than 60 lives, all the petty political squabbles disappeared in a matter of hours on Monday.

In a rare display of mobilization and solidarity, PM Rossen Zhelyazkov sent an army Spartan transport plane to take the first batch of injured Macedonians, quickly followed by a motorcade of ambulances that set out Southwest to bring additional patients to Bulgaria's emergency hospitals in Sofia, Plovdiv and Varna.

Macedonian doctors working in Bulgaria helped coordinate the operation and helped victims' families find a place to stay while their loved ones recovered. In just one day more than 600 people from all over the country donated blood for the victims. Even the nationalist VMRO canceled a planned protest against what they perceive to be N. Macedonia's anti-Bulgarian policy.

United in grief and united in anger

This is a huge human tragedy and hopefully we can learn from it and it will serve as a wake-up call. For example, another tragedy - the 44 dead on the Struma highway, did not lead to a significant change in the way Bulgarian roads are marked. We are, around here, famous for being good-hearted but ill-prepared and disorganized. Or, as the advertiser Martin Dimitrov nailed it, the region is marked by "the ability of Balkan nations to come together in the face of perfectly avoidable tragedies."

Does the Foreign Ministry even care about Bulgarians?

The Bulgarian authorities reacted underwhelmingly to the news of the death of a Bulgarian UN employee during Israel's resumed bombing campaign of the Gaza strip that ended the 2-month ceasefire earlier this week. Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev, who is well-known for his close ties to Israel, practically repeated Israel's official statement denying any involvement by the IDF in the attack on the UN compound. Georgiev, whom I hesitate to even call "the face of Bulgarian diplomacy", did not even mention that there must be a proper investigation into the causes of the humanitarian worker's demise. The fact that there was bombing in the area and the UN itself called the explosion "not an accident, but an incident", didn't even figure in the Bulgarian FM's statement.

Some hours later

Prime Minister Rossen Zhelyazkov took matters into his own hands from Brussels. Zhelyazkov said Sofia asked for an investigation and for holding those responsible to account, which is at least an attempt to save face. His words though did not show too much compassion, either: "First, condolence. Unpleasant incident."

Anti-gambling billboard is shunned

Go around Bulgaria's cities and highways and you will see gambling businesses everywhere getting advertised. Yet try to put one poster against it? No, thank you, said the advertising industry.

In a daring move from this week, the "Bulgarian History" publishing house decided to counter this tendency. They offered to pay advertisement companies for a couple of billboards in central Sofia that would have the association's logo plus the text "We hired this billboard so that there is no gambling advertisement on it at least for a week. We say no to the sickness that poisons our society." No one took up the offer.

And you probably think the TV networks, after being banned legally from advertising gambling, would jump on that story for a pinch of social activism. Wrong again - they largely ignored this hugely popular social media post.

We're on our own, folks

So yes, don't expect any help against the big money to come from those who take them. Online gambling is a 1 bln. levs business and growing. The post of "Bulgarian History" was seen over 1.6 mln times and got widely shared. That's a start.

Economy:

The Road Infrastructure Agency (RIA) announced a tender for the final section of the Ruse - Veliko Tarnovo motorway this week. The length of the last section left to be awarded is 60 km and the estimated cost is 2.967 billion levs excluding VAT. By comparison, the remaining 76 km, contracted in autumn 2022, have been awarded for 1.53 billion levs excluding VAT. In 2021, in response to a Capital Weekly inquiry, the RIA claimed that the cost of this section would be around 555 million levs, but, apparently, it miraculously got five times more expensive.

Mind you, not a single kilometer built

So far, this has become the most expensive highway in Bulgaria - 133 km for 4.5 billion levs. And even though it is highly necessary - South-North Schengen corridor - and it was contracted 3 years ago, not a single kilometer is finished. Should we call them The Wannabe Road Agency at this point?

Figures:

The inflation rate for February 2025, according to NSI. Despite the high number, the annual average consumer price growth, which European institutions will look at when assessing whether Bulgaria is ready to adopt the euro, stands at 2.63% and is slightly below the floating price stability criterion, which was 2.65% during the month. Thus, it can be said that Bulgaria met the stipulation in February and remains on track to join the euro.

2.5 billion euro

The sum Bulgaria might lose out on from the EU Social Climate Fund that aims to support measures against extreme energy poverty in the 2026-2032 period, if it does not create a national institution to manage it, 12 NGOs warned this week.

380 million euros

The volume of the real estate investment market in Bulgaria in 2024, according to Colliers data. This is almost double compared to 2023, when it was 220 million euros, and above its average levels of around 200-250 million euros for the last four-five years. Yet in Poland only 4% of that is local money, while in Bulgaria it is 80%.

Business:

The fourth largest retailer reported sales of more than 1.2 billion levs for the past financial year and recorded a 10% increase (excluding inflation) compared to the previous corresponding period. This is the highest real growth in the history of the company in the country, which opened its first two stores in Sofia and Plovdiv in March 1999.

Automotive

The largest supplier of trucks in Europe marked its best year for sales in Bulgaria, growing by 21.6% year-on-year and delivering a record 616 vehicles in the country.

IT

Over a thousand employees of one of the formerly largest IT companies in the country have been laid off since the final acquisition by Broadcom with only 850 remaining at the moment. What is happening in Bulgaria mirrors global VMware.

Watch out for:

The only candidate for Health Insurance Fund manager, Dr Petko Stefanovski, who was proposed by GERB, was elected on Thursday with 147 votes in favor, in line with expectations. He was supported by the parties of the ruling majority GERB, BSP, TISP, MRF (Dogan) as well as Delyan Peevski's formation MRF-New Beginning. Stefanovski was elected for a new five-year term at the head of the health insurance fund, which will distribute nearly 9.5 billion levs this year alone.

Location:

Paradise land

Source: Save Sofia

One of the busiest and most clogged intersections in Sofia near the famous shopping center Paradise Mall, will likely end up even more congested. That's if resurfaced information on Thursday that Sofia's interim chief architect Stefan Asparuhov may have issued a building permit for a 215-meter skyscraper next to it proves true. The news led to renewed tension in Sofia's already shaky ruling coalition, with Save Sofia head Boris Bonev attacking WCC-DB mayor Vasil Terziev for allowing the continuation of the controversial construction, a leftover from the times of GERB's administration, despite promises that the new authorities would put Sofia's construction on hold.

Zen of the week:

You know the famous phrase by Mark Twain that "reports of my death were a huge exaggeration"? Well, this must be what retired footballer Petko Ganchev from the Arda Kardzhali team must have thought while sipping his rakia and waiting for his team to kick off its match against Levski Sofia this week. Surprisingly, the game began with a minute's silence by both teams dedicated to Ganchev himself.

According to interviews with the retired player, he drank a glass of rakia in his own memory and then had to respond to calls from bereaved friends and family. Turned out the club had gotten the wrong information.

A funny add-on was that a friend of Ganchev, who was at the stadium and knew he was alive and well, still felt obliged to stand for the minute of silence so as not to make it awkward. The things we do for friends, huh?