The Zhelyazkov cabinet program: familiar intentions but nothing reformist

Дневник

The Zhelyazkov cabinet program: familiar intentions but nothing reformist

Among the novelties is that the government now aims to increase military spending to 2.5% of GDP

Дневник

© Антон Чалъков


A little more than a month after the Zhelyazkov cabinet took office, the parties that form it - GERB, BSP, TISP and MRF (Dogan) finally published a draft government program for a full four-year mandate. The document, exceeding 90 pages, was discussed in the Council for Joint Governance of the 3+1 parties on 18 February and reached the media shortly after.

It contains a wish list of nice and important goals for Bulgaria - from joining the Eurozone, to the return to "prudent fiscal management", the end of US visas, the country's removal from the grey list for money laundering states, the accelerated implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), and joining the OECD. The realities, of course, do not always coincide with the good intentions. Here is what the program envisages in some key sectors.

Energy: no sudden changes

The cabinet is not planning any abrupt changes in the energy sector and there are no new large-scale projects. Rather, the focus is on completing some key investments that have been delayed, in terms of nuclear capacity and networks. There is little talk of decarbonization and transformation, but there will be a decree to transform the European Green Deal Council in the context of new European initiatives. Specifically, the government is set to make the final investment decision on the construction of new nuclear capacity at the Kozloduy site - Unit VII and Unit VIII- which is expected to happen as early as the end of 2025.

The expansion of the Chiren underground gas storage facility, which failed last year after the European Public Prosecutor's Office launched an inquiry into the procedure, has been re-confirmed. There is also a commitment to restore key hydropower facilities, including the Chaira and Teshel hydropower plants. The construction of the Yadenitsa dam is also planned again, which will allow Chaira to operate in round-the-clock mode. The projects for new hydro plants at Batak and Dospat are also mentioned in the document.

Among the key projects listed under the RRP is CARMEN - for the construction of smart grids in Bulgaria and Romania. Coal-fired power plants are not directly mentioned, except that funding will be provided for the reclamation of the Mines Maritsa East mines. It is also envisaged to apply a permanent dividend rate of up to 50% to the Bulgarian Energy Holding to have funds to repay the holding's liabilities and to ensure the liquidity of the group.

Even more defense spending

In terms of the defense sector, it is noteworthy that the government is already aiming to increase military spending to 2.5% of GDP, compared to the previous target of 2% for NATO countries. In theory, this sounds like a good bid to modernize the country's armed forces. In reality, it is below the stated new target of the allies in the alliance, which is 3% of GDP, not to mention the demands of US President Trump, who scolded Europe and demanded that it give at least 5%. It is striking, however, that this time the priority of supporting Ukraine in building up its armed forces has, coincidentally or not, been placed last.

In terms of investment spending, the current government cites as its most urgent priorities the modernization of the Graff Ignatyevo Air Base so that it can accommodate the new F-16 Block 70 fighter jets from the spring, the acquisition of the first Stryker infantry fighting vehicles (to be delivered at the end of the summer), as well as the capacity for their repair and maintenance in Bulgaria. Also mentioned is the acquisition this year of the first of two modular patrol ships being built by the German company NVL Group (former Luerssen) at the Varna Dolphin shipyard. Regarding the other projects, most of which are already known, the appearance of a program for the acquisition of new attack helicopters, as well as of more modular patrol ships and/or missile boats (most likely because the Chief of Defense is an admiral) is noteworthy.

Infrastructure: the usual big projects

Infrastructure development ideas follow a recognizable pattern. The program foresees the completion of what has been started - sections of Hemus, the highway from Ruse to Byala (and the bypass of the city), the last stretch of the Europe highway from Sofia to Serbia, and the completion of the Danube Bridge renovation. There are several longer-term projects mentioned - for the construction of Struma in the area of the Kresna Gorge - outside the gorge itself, the Ruse - Veliko Tarnovo highway south of Byala, Hemus from Tarnovo to Popovo, and the tunnel under Shipka. According to the document, this is a total of 125 km of roads.

The administrative procedures for backlogged projects such as the tunnel under Petrohan and the Black Sea highway are also included, and even for the Bulgarian part of a new bridge over the Danube. But it is not clear how long these plans will take. What is missing is a coherent strategy for transparent and adequate road maintenance and repair.

The urgent issue of access to water is also mentioned, but only concerning projects already started anyway - such as the completion of the Luda Yana dam, which is in the final stages. Because of the water regime, which is affecting more and more settlements, the program also includes controversial ideas such as the design of the Cherni Osam dam near Lovech and Byala dam near Gabrovo.

The construction of new, or reconstruction of existing water and sewerage infrastructure, is also mentioned, but without naming any specific projects, instead referring to those already planned with money from the Environment Programme and the RRP. The cabinet also wants to finally approve a law on water and sewerage to sort out the sector and "ensure the financial sustainability of operators."

The rest - anticorruption missing and a lot of healthcare investment

The health sector program provides for massive building and furnishing - from the construction of the National Children's Hospital and the National Proton Therapy Centre, to the construction of 300 outpatient clinics in hard-to-reach areas, to the renovation of 125 emergency care facilities and 18 psychiatric hospitals and wards. Also included is the procurement of ambulances and 7 new air ambulance helicopters and the completion of six hangars for them, as well as the supply of equipment under the RRP.

Last, but not least, come the justice sector plans, mostly consisting of long-postponed legal changes required for the full unblocking of the RRP funds. Yet, disturbingly, this part of the program is notable for the total absence of the topic of corruption and influence schemes in the judiciary, a glaring omission if there ever was one.

A little more than a month after the Zhelyazkov cabinet took office, the parties that form it - GERB, BSP, TISP and MRF (Dogan) finally published a draft government program for a full four-year mandate. The document, exceeding 90 pages, was discussed in the Council for Joint Governance of the 3+1 parties on 18 February and reached the media shortly after.

It contains a wish list of nice and important goals for Bulgaria - from joining the Eurozone, to the return to "prudent fiscal management", the end of US visas, the country's removal from the grey list for money laundering states, the accelerated implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), and joining the OECD. The realities, of course, do not always coincide with the good intentions. Here is what the program envisages in some key sectors.

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