Since its accession to the European Union in 2007, regardless of the governments that have been in charge, Bulgaria has sought to be an integral part of European institutions and to follow their principles - or at least has claimed to do so. In recent years, however, the country has fermented, as if deliberately, a variety of problems that call into question its place in the EU. The rise of anti-liberal movements, the instability of the domestic political scene and the problems of corruption and oligarchy put Sofia in a risky position. At the beginning of the new EU institutional cycle, but also of Trump's new mandate at the helm of the USA, Bulgaria's repositioning will have long-term consequences.
From problem-free to risky country
So far, Bulgaria has managed to maintain an image of a problem-free country in the European context. Over the last decade, GERB governments have usually said what they were supposed to on the international stage, but have been in no hurry to implement these principles. In the last two years, however, the goals of reforming the justice system and fighting corruption seem to have been all but officially abandoned. Now that the country is facing new internal instability and political radicalization, the perception of Bulgaria as a non-problematic player that would not stand in the way of the EU is beginning to change.
Over the past two years, the inability of GERB, the repeated winner of most of the recent elections, to form a government has been indicative of the deep political crisis gripping the country. The image of Bulgaria as a captured state has begun to fortify and explanations that political parties are failing to unite around common goals will not wash. This state of hidden power and political instability is affecting not only domestic politics but also Bulgaria's international image.
Corruption and control of the oligarchs
Viewed from the outside, the country is notorious for its high level of corruption, which affects various areas of public life, including justice, administration and the economy. Oligarchs, who control a significant part of the economy, often influence political decisions and undermine democratic institutions. This situation is particularly worrying for foreigners who are hesitant to invest in a country with an unstable and corrupt environment.
The issue of corruption and a functioning judiciary is not only a national concern but also a European one. In the context of the European single market, each member state must ensure legal certainty and a level playing field for all investors. When Bulgaria fails to tackle corruption and the influence of the oligarchs, this not only threatens investment, but also undermines the stability and integrity of the common European market. Against the backdrop of the increasingly critical attitude of the citizens of the donor countries towards the European budget and its distribution, Bulgaria's reluctance to implement reforms set out in the Recovery and Resilience Plan seems to be proof that the interests of the corrupt transcend the public interest. Scepticism towards the country is growing inordinately.
The influence of anti-liberal movements
With the election of Donald Trump as President of the USA, the anti-liberal movements in Europe and around the world have felt empowered. The pendulum of history seems to be swinging in their direction. From Austria to France to Germany, the far right and the far left are preparing to participate in government at various levels. Meanwhile, Putin's war against the West is incurring more casualties in Ukraine. In Bulgaria, such sentiments are not new, but today they are more palpable than ever. Political figures and parties inspired by Viktor Orban's model in Hungary are beginning to gain more support. This trend is worrying, because here, because of the combination with oligarchic power, it is leading to a further weakening of democratic institutions and the rule of law.
With the growing influence of nationalism and pro-Russian populism in the country, Bulgaria's movement towards Orban's camp seems logical. Movements such as Vazrazhdane, TISP and Metch often offer simple solutions to complex problems, but in the long run they can lead to authoritarian features of government and a geopolitical shift to the East. Because of its historical proximity to Russia, the rise of anti-liberal movements in Bulgaria will also be perceived as a signal to the EU that the country may be deviating from basic European principles and goals. This at a time when Russia's war against the West is reaching a critical point and Europe is looking for new means to secure its own defense.
If Bulgaria were to make a U-turn, this would take it out of the debates and decisions on future deepening of the EU integration, especially in defence and security. It is very possible that integration in the coming years will flow not through the European institutions - because they could be blocked - but between the governments of willing countries.
The new Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) - the EU budget for the next 7 years - will start to be negotiated in 2025. Countries that block common solutions (as Hungary blocked funds for Ukraine) will have no say in the formation of the MFF. In the case of Bulgaria, which still has a lot of catching up to do economically, this will have long-term consequences. For Orban's Hungary, the effects of such behavior are already visible: the country cannot benefit from more than 6 billion euro, and economic growth is lower than expected.
Last but not least, the choice of the system of a captured state over that of transparency, justice and free markets will make Bulgaria a de facto part of the periphery, which includes those candidate countries that can easily belong to the Russian sphere of influence. The crossroads the EU is at will not allow it to deal with Bulgaria's problems. Bulgaria itself will have to decide which path to take.
Since its accession to the European Union in 2007, regardless of the governments that have been in charge, Bulgaria has sought to be an integral part of European institutions and to follow their principles - or at least has claimed to do so. In recent years, however, the country has fermented, as if deliberately, a variety of problems that call into question its place in the EU. The rise of anti-liberal movements, the instability of the domestic political scene and the problems of corruption and oligarchy put Sofia in a risky position. At the beginning of the new EU institutional cycle, but also of Trump's new mandate at the helm of the USA, Bulgaria's repositioning will have long-term consequences.
