On 12 December Bulgaria and Romania should finally receive the green light from other EU members to enter the Schengen free travel space. For over a decade, a number of countries have thwarted this, as they viewed Sofia and Bucharest as unfit to protect the external borders of the bloc - often, for valid reasons linked to the fight against organized crime and the rule of law.
But the recent momentum created by Croatia's fast track entry into the common travel zone in 2023, Romania's diplomatic blitz, the support the two countries granted for Holland's Mark Rutte as NATO chief, and the war in Ukraine, helped the two countries reach this point.
This is a long-awaited moment for many businesses and people. On the one hand, it should open up the traffic-clogged borders, give a strong boost to tourism and cross-border trade. On the other, it will open up more opportunities for jobs, business and, maybe most importantly - it will help propel the two Balkan countries closer to the inner circle of the EU. For the EU itself, it is important that it opens the road corridor between the Black Sea, Turkey and Asia to the heart of Europe.
The winding road to Schengen
For most of 2024, progress towards full Schengen accession seemed to have stalled. After the partial victory of allowing the two countries to join by air and water in March, the goal of full membership seemed a lost cause. The Netherlands and Austria, which previously blocked full entry, saw radical parties winning elections, so the expectation was that the stalemate would continue for a while. The first signal for change, however, came when Austrian Commissioner-designate Magnus Brunner said during his hearing that he would ok the two countries joining Schengen as long as all Vienna's requirements were met. Vienna's interior ministry also praised Bulgaria's increased efforts to protect its border with Turkey.
Then, at a special meeting organised in Budapest (which currently presides over the EU Council) two weeks ago, ministers from Romania, Bulgaria and Austria signed an additional agreement that Vienna would change its mind if there were at least six more months of risk-based checks between Bulgaria and Romania and Romania and Hungary. After this breakthrough, the EU Council tabled a decision that ought to be voted by the EU interior ministers on 12 December and then formally approved by the EU leaders on 19 December. It seems that by 1 January 2025 full membership will already be a fact.
How the "small print" reads
The borders will not, however, see a wholesale opening immediately. The first border most likely to open will be between Bulgaria and Greece, the most important one for tourists. The expectation is that travel for cars, as well as trucks heading south, will be free from as early as 1 January. The Customs Agency told Capital weekly that with full Schengen accession "there will be no checks to impede traffic at the borders themselves," and heavy goods vehicles will be inspected further inland if necessary. In the north, checks will remain in place for at least six months. Anton Zlatanov, the director of the Border Police, has already explained that border controls at the border with Romania will be partial (based on risk analysis) like in many EU countries recently.
The most complicated situation will remain on the Turkish border, which is becoming the de facto Schengen barrier to the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The EU border agency Frontex will triple its forces in Bulgaria. The technical preparations for the expansion of the external borders with motion detectors, thermal imaging cameras, detectors, patrol vessels and all-terrain vehicles - are already being supported by the European Commission to the tune of 130 million euro.
The border protection agreement signed by Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria and Romania in Budapest provides for the countries to send a joint contingent of 100 border guards to the Bulgarian-Turkish border. The details and exact contributions of the countries are to be decided by December. There is a huge problem with the capacity of the crossing points themselves, which urgently need to be modernized and expanded. Additionally, former European Commission representative to Sofia, Ognyan Zlatev, has warned of "targeted provocations" similar to the ones experienced by Croatia in the run-up to its Schengen accession. In his opinion, Bulgaria should carefully monitor the geopolitical situation and prepare for extreme migrant waves.
The economic benefits of Schengen by land
For Bulgaria, the main benefits will be in the easier export of goods to Western markets. At the moment, this access is stopped at two consecutive borders - the Romanian and the Hungarian, which makes delivery more expensive and longer. Lifting both these obstacles would lower the prices of goods and make local producers more competitive.
The transport sector is already waiting for the doors to open after the situation at the Romanian border degenerated into a nightmare in recent years, with queues of trucks extending tens of kilometers inland. An analysis by the Economy Ministry last year put the cost of the lost benefits of full Schengen membership at BGN 1.2 billion . Even Austrian businesses in the two countries reacted last year and cited the costs it has incurred on account of Bulgaria and Romania's exclusion from Schengen.
"Romanian tourists are extremely important for Bulgaria. In recent months, they preferred to take a plane and visit Turkey to save themselves the time spent queuing at the borders, although they enjoy the summer and winter resorts in our country. That will now change. The same applies to the cargo route, as recently alternative routes from the Bulgarian-Romanian border to Asia have been sought," Viktor Gugushev, chairman of the board of the Bulgarian-Romanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told Capital weekly.
MEP Andrei Novakov, who has lobbied hard in recent years for easier access for Bulgarian trucks to Schengen, says that "hauliers will be freed from long delays and bureaucratic procedures at borders, which will reduce costs and delivery times, thus increasing our competitiveness on European markets."
Another Bulgarian MEP, Ilhan Kyuchyuk, sees "huge advantages for Bulgaria's entry into the Schengen area in terms of the economy, tourism and most of all, a lot of national self-confidence for us, which we need. An injustice has been remedied - Bulgarians and Romanians have been kept in the waiting room for too long, being treated as second-class European citizens."
No visas and no roads
With Schengen entry, however, the lack of infrastructure at the borders will become painfully visible. For example, although rail transport is also being unblocked, it will not grow much because there is no fast line from Sofia to Thessaloniki, the bridge at Vidin has no adequate connections on both sides and the one in Ruse is under repair. The repairs must continue for at least another two years, which means that the queues will remain, regardless of the lifting of the barriers. The facility itself also has limited capacity, and a new bridge at Ruse will not be in place until 2028 at the earliest.
More than 4 million vehicles now pass through the border crossings per annum, 2 million more than the maximum capacity envisaged. This means that Bulgaria has long missed the moment to modernize according to its real needs. Schengen will only make this much more visible and urgent.
On 12 December Bulgaria and Romania should finally receive the green light from other EU members to enter the Schengen free travel space. For over a decade, a number of countries have thwarted this, as they viewed Sofia and Bucharest as unfit to protect the external borders of the bloc - often, for valid reasons linked to the fight against organized crime and the rule of law.
But the recent momentum created by Croatia's fast track entry into the common travel zone in 2023, Romania's diplomatic blitz, the support the two countries granted for Holland's Mark Rutte as NATO chief, and the war in Ukraine, helped the two countries reach this point.
