The week: Less hate, more business, We're finally connected to Greece, And Ruse is a real-estate outlier

Дневник

The week: Less hate, more business, We're finally connected to Greece, And Ruse is a real-estate outlier

Дневник

© Дневник


To speak of Russians these days in Europe is a bit like speaking of Germans after WWII. You kinda do it apologetically, as if the mere idea of talking about the people east of Belarus is blasphemous. Yet they are here and coming in ever larger numbers: the war motivated hundreds of thousands of them to leave the country and for all the talk about Asia or the Middle East, Europe is still by far the preferred destination (ask any Russian).

I was in Varna last week, where the end of the season looks a lot different with the weather going into the mid to high 20s and Russian being spoken everywhere - not only by Russians, presumably. Varna is also the region where most Ukrainians settled - it's close to home, the language, the culture, and the church are familiar, everything reminds them of their own Black Sea region and is also, what they know best of Bulgaria, as a Ukrainian businessman in Plovdiv explained to me some time ago.

Most of those things apply to Russians too, as they have been coming here for quite some time. For example, I haven't looked too closely at the numbers, but since the prices around Varna start at 2000 euros/sq.m, and they are being bought up, it's a good guess this foreign wave is one of the reasons the property market is booming.

So here is a political platform no one yet proposed.

The rhetoric we adopted since the beginning of the war has been pumped up to the maximum to enhance division. While the pro-European parties have been painting the Russians in the worst possible light, implying they are a threat to national security, the pro-Russian Vazrazhdane has been busy claiming we are a part of the Russian world and should stick to it. This poisons the whole debate.

Neither side can have their full victory. It is impossible to make certain Bulgarians hate the Russians, just as it is impossible to make the majority want to leave the EU. Nor are either of those things necessary. This is not geopolitics, it's pure reason. No sane person hates ordinary people when

Bulgaria is historically close to both nations, and while admitting loud & clear that Russia is to blame for the disaster unfolding in Ukraine, it shouldn't stop us from providing safe space to whoever decides to seek it here if they are not criminals, spies or dangerous (at present Russians, for example, face a 7-8 month wait for a visa and the majority are denied).

That would require a cleansing of the services, so that they operate on full capacity against foreign interests. And that is a good thing.

But what's more - a sensible strategy would be to use this position to bolster economic and political authority in the region. There must be a middle ground between going full Orban and banning all Russians from entering or buying anything.

Politics this week:

Brace yourself, the shit storm is coming

Elections are often pretty vile in Bulgaria, but since the split of the MRF between Ahmed Dogan's loyalists (now known as ARF) and Delyan Peevski's cronies a few weeks ago, it seems that they will get even uglier.

The first signal has been the arrest of the leader of the Shumen election list for ARF Dzheyhan Ibryamov on Wednesday afternoon after a specialized operation by the criminal police. The charges were not officially announced and the versions changed constantly.

Immunity aside

The arrest is arguably on the edge of the law, as Ibryamov is still an MP and hence under parliament immunity. The Bulgarian Prosecution, which is yet to prove a single corruption allegation against a high-ranking politician in court, said it had no other choice, as they caught Ibryamov in the act. It would be extremely interesting to follow up and see if this time they manage to prove something. Should be easy, if they caught him red-handed, right?

Peevski's calling

Irony aside, it seems more than obvious to anyone that the services are beholden to Peevski. Meanwhile, a list appeared of the local movers & helpers of his cause - the hackers group BG Elves started publishing what they say are the people who are going to buy votes in this election in every city.

Economy:

Budget deficit increased by over a billion in a month

The budget deficit increased by over 1.1 billion levs in just one month and had already reached 2.8 billion, or 1.4% of the projected GDP, according to the Ministry of Finance's forecast data for September. One part of the negative score - about 700 million - comes from one-off payments, including for interest payments and student aid, while the rest is due to the double-digit growth of pension and salary costs in the public sector. If there is good news, it is that tax receipts have stabilized and are growing by over 13% compared to last year.

What about that euro next year?

We're still on track. However the budget for 2024 is planned with a cash deficit of 6.2 billion levs or 3% of GDP and in the remaining three months of the year the minus is likely to grow.

Figures

4.38 billion levs

The insurance market in Bulgaria continues to grow steadily, with total premium income reaching 4.38 billion levs in 2023, exceeding the 4 billion levs mark for the first time.

Business:

Real estate

Park Center Sofia

The first Sofia mall - the one opposite Hemus hotel - is about to change its owner for the fourth time. The Bulgarian company TSH Investment is buying Park Center Sofia at a price, which, according to market sources, is in the range of 34-40 million euros - lower than any previous price. The interesting partner here is Hus - a Plovdiv construction company which has seen explosive growth in the past several years and is reaching almost a billion levs in turnover.

Defense

IAG

The military vehicles production plant of the American-Bulgarian businessman Anton Stefanov in Burgas is now operational. The plant will produce all the vehicles that the group makes in other countries, including the Rila 8X8 infantry fighting vehicle. The firm also said that it has purchased land for the creation of a second plant near Simitli.

Mining

Velocity Minerals

The Canadian mining company announced it has signed a binding agreement with Turkey's Türkerler to sell its gold exploration projects in Bulgaria. The Turkish company will acquire 100% of the Rosino project and related rights, as well as Velocity's interest in other assets for a total consideration of USD 59 million.

ENERGY

The Greek connection is open!

It took us ages. Yet the connection between the Bulgarian and the Greek gas networks is complete now. This means Bulgaria and the region can now actually break almost completely with Russian natural gas supplies if they want to, since Gastrade's long-awaited liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in the Greek city of Alexandroupolis became fully operational on 1 October. This is a historic event because the facility is one of the most important energy projects at European, regional and local level. It was designed, built and managed by Gastrade, in which Bulgartransgaz has a 20% stake.

The infrastructure can secure gas supplies from the USA, Qatar, Egypt and beyond. This will improve liquidity in the region and lead to more competitive prices, as it will intertwine with the IGB pipeline to the North, which will contribute to the creation of the Vertical Gas Corridor from Greece to Ukraine, that will work as an alternative to the Russian TurkStream project - and operate under European rules. Read more here.

BRUSSELS:

#Cost of living -The European Parliament published on Thursday a new Eurobarometer survey, which examines the voting behavior of EU citizens in the European elections and their main priorities. It seems that the cost of living is the main concern of citizens at the beginning of the new EP mandate.

#DiscoverEU- The European Commission is launching a new round of applications for young people (under 18) to travel the continent for free by rail. It will take place between 2 October 2024 at 12:00:00 (midday Brussels time) and 16 October 2024 at 12:00:00 (midday Brussels time).

Watch out for:

Person:

Levon Manukyan

The director of the theater and the local philharmonic in the town of Razgrad was arrested for siphoning money from the state with fictitious appointments. The people in question not only were never actors or connected to the theater, they actually never visited Razgrad. Later, however, another theater director - this time in Smolyan - was arrested on the same charges, making it clear this is more than a one-off scheme.

Yavor Stefanov

Is the new head of Coca Cola HBC Bulgaria. The commercial director of the company has been part of it since 2005 and is replacing Sasha Markovich, who will oversee the Serbian and Montenegrin markets.

Place:

Rousse

Is the worst performing big city in Bulgaria in terms of real estate deals this last quarter. Sales are down 8% compared to the previous year, while most of the others (bar Varna) are registering growth. The market overall registers around 0.5% fall compared to 2023, but Sofia (12.5%), Plovdiv (13.7%) and Burgas (19.1%) are flying high.

DATE

4 - 12 November

The hearings of the new Commissioners in front of the European Parliament will take place then. The official vote for the new college is expected at the end of the same month. If everything goes smoothly and well (doubtful, but possible), the new Commission will officially start its work at the beginning of December.

Zen of the week:

Always look on the bright side of things, as Monty Python would have it. Yes, it's a dirty and sleazy campaign, and the lists are full of criminals. On the other hand, the Bulgarian parliament just might have its first OnlyFans star. Deniz Hayrula - a reality star and a former model and Instagram influencer, has just graced us with her presence on the list of Mr. Delyan Peevski. It's notable that the slogan "New Beginnings" is a good fit for ms. Hayrula - her Instagram handle carries the tag DenizHayrulaNew, as the old one was linking to her (now defunct) Only fans page.

To speak of Russians these days in Europe is a bit like speaking of Germans after WWII. You kinda do it apologetically, as if the mere idea of talking about the people east of Belarus is blasphemous. Yet they are here and coming in ever larger numbers: the war motivated hundreds of thousands of them to leave the country and for all the talk about Asia or the Middle East, Europe is still by far the preferred destination (ask any Russian).

I was in Varna last week, where the end of the season looks a lot different with the weather going into the mid to high 20s and Russian being spoken everywhere - not only by Russians, presumably. Varna is also the region where most Ukrainians settled - it's close to home, the language, the culture, and the church are familiar, everything reminds them of their own Black Sea region and is also, what they know best of Bulgaria, as a Ukrainian businessman in Plovdiv explained to me some time ago.

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