The political crisis rocking Bulgaria in the past three years has deepened, likely turning into a constitutional one after President Rumen Radev rejected the cabinet proposed by the deputy head of the audit agency Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva on Monday. Radev objected to Kozhareva retaining the current Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov as part of her team, despite demands for his ousting from several parties over his hinted closeness to MRF co-chairman Delyan Peevski.
This is an unprecedented move by Radev, whose powers to appoint a caretaker cabinet were purposefully restricted by the rotating cabinet of WCC-DB and GERB last year. Some legal experts and politicians claim that his decision to block the Kozhareva cabinet might even be deemed a constitutional breach - something that will likely be decided in the Constitutional court in the coming months.
In any case, several things are now clear: first of all, Bulgaria will not go to early elections before 20 October, as there will not be a caretaker cabinet appointed on time to organize the vote for this day. Secondly, it is unclear who will become caretaker PM now - it is likely that Dimitar Glavchev cannot maintain his post, as he is currently not formally part of the National Audit Office. And lastly, the debacle showed that Stoyanov has indeed been important for Peevski, who is adamant to keep his stranglehold over the MRF.
Radev makes his move
On Monday, President Radev refused to sign the decree with the cabinet composition proposed by the nominee for caretaker PM Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva because of her decision to keep Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov, who has shown his closeness to MRF co-chairman Delyan Peevski. The head of state offered Kozhareva more time to reconsider the decision and propose a new candidate for interior minister, but she refused.
This leads to an unprecedented situation in which Radev will have to choose a new candidate for PM from among the members of the leadership of several institutions. The current caretaker government of Dimitar Glavchev will now have to continue functioning until a new one is formed and early parliamentary elections will be pushed back beyond the previously indicated date of 20 October.
Why does it matter?
A constitutional crisis can be added to the country's political crisis, as the basic law does not direct what to do in such cases. The list of names for another caretaker prime minister is almost exhausted and without a new caretaker cabinet, the president cannot issue a decree with a date for the next elections. Delaying them, in turn, could jeopardize some important goals for Bulgaria - such as adopting the euro, passing a sound budget for 2025, carrying out reforms in public sectors and unblocking EU-funded projects.
In practice, the future government has become a hostage of Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov. It is important who is at the head of the Interior Ministry - a nodal institution during elections that can allow or deter abuses with controlled and bought votes in many parts of the country, which is probably one of the reasons Stoyanov is such a valuable minister for unpopular politicians who seek re-legitimation like Delyan Peevski.
What comes next?
The president must choose a candidate for caretaker PM from several high office holders of several institutions. Under the new rules agreed to under the constitutional amendments approved by WCC-DB, GERB and MRF late last year, these can formally be the speaker of parliament, the governor and sub-governors of the National Bank, BNB, the president and vice-presidents of the National Auditor's Office, as well as the ombudsman and their deputy.
At present, however there is neither an Ombudsman nor a Deputy Ombudsman. Speaker of the National Assembly Raya Nazarian (GERB) refused to take on the job and the WCC nominee for deputy BNB governor Andrey Gyurov has been eliminated from the race over conflict of interest charges. Thus Radev's options are narrowed down to Glavchev (who has already changed his mind after declining to continue as a caretaker PM) and his other deputy in the Audit Chamber - Toshko Todorov. Eventually, the list could be joined by the half-hearted consent of BNB Deputy Governor Petar Chobanov (MRF) with the risk of not being able to return to the post if he agrees to be nominated as caretaker prime minister, because the European Central Bank aired a signal some time ago that they would not approve such a step.
According to experts, there are three alternative options that could be considered. The simplest one would be for new consultations for a caretaker cabinet to take place and for the parties to agree to a compromise candidate. They tried to do so on Tuesday, but failed. The second potential option is for an urgent constitutional change that would expand the potential PM candidates that Radev can choose from - something that seems impossible at this stage of the dissolving parliament.
Lastly, MPs can set in motion a procedure for the election of an ombudsman and a deputy ombudsman, and change the law so that they can elect new vice-presidents of the Auditor's Office (which is outside of the Parliament's auspices at the moment). WCC-DB has already filed such a proposal, but achieving a majority in this fragmented parliament seems unlikely.
In any case, the upcoming weeks promise to be a mess for the legal and political order in Bulgaria, as president, Peevski, Dogan and GERB will contend for power over the system at a crucial moment for the country.
The political crisis rocking Bulgaria in the past three years has deepened, likely turning into a constitutional one after President Rumen Radev rejected the cabinet proposed by the deputy head of the audit agency Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva on Monday. Radev objected to Kozhareva retaining the current Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov as part of her team, despite demands for his ousting from several parties over his hinted closeness to MRF co-chairman Delyan Peevski.
This is an unprecedented move by Radev, whose powers to appoint a caretaker cabinet were purposefully restricted by the rotating cabinet of WCC-DB and GERB last year. Some legal experts and politicians claim that his decision to block the Kozhareva cabinet might even be deemed a constitutional breach - something that will likely be decided in the Constitutional court in the coming months.