Continued decline in electricity generation, mostly due to the halting of thermal power plant (TPP) production, record low electricity exports, slight increase in consumption and a boom in solar power. This, in a nutshell, is how 2024 can be summed up for the Bulgarian energy sector.
According to data from the Electricity System Operator shared with Capital weekly, the country produced 5% less electricity during the year, driven mostly by cuts in coal power plants.
For the first time in several years there was also an increase in domestic electricity consumption - by 900,000 MWh, or 1%. The growth can be explained primarily by consumption in households, with more people switching from solid fuel, gas and heating to electricity - with air conditioners and heat pumps. This has forced the public supplier to buy larger quantities to meet demand.
But perhaps the most significant indicator change for 2024 is electricity exports. Bulgaria has traditionally sold its energy to the region and all long-term strategies take for granted that at least 8,000 GWh per year is being exported. This is quoted as a reason to invest in new large capacities such as nuclear power plants (NPPs), as well as the preservation of the TPPs. But the reality is different - last year there was a record low of about 1000 GWh of electricity exported. This is 70% less than the previous year and highlights changing trends in the region where new capacity is more competitive and flexible.
In contrast, the Bulgarian power sector continued to develop too slowly. And the lack of a concept for the future of coal-fired power plants, the endlessly delayed liberalisation of the electricity market for household customers, and the state's anti-market interventions by taking revenues away from electricity producers are just some of the problems. This makes the sector more and more uncompetitive in the region. Bulgarian consumers increasingly find it more profitable to import energy from neighbors rather than rely on local power plants.
Renewables sector
In 2024, Bulgaria produced record amounts of solar electricity, which is not surprising given the larger number of new plants in the country. Just under 5tWh is the total amount produced - the year-on-year growth is around 65%, and triple the 2022 figure. However, the share of green energy in the total mix is difficult to pinpoint because of the change in the format of the data that is submitted to the European network of system operators ENTSO-E. ESOs' report shows that the relative share of green energy exceeds 25% on average for the whole year.
In contrast to photovoltaics, however, wind turbines produced a record low amount of electricity. The year-on-year decline is not as impressive, at 7%, but it is down by as much as 24% compared to 2022 and an impressive 43% compared to 2021. The last 4 months of the year turned out to be the weakest in terms of production in 2024, probably triggered by the extremely warm summer and the lack of rainfall. Only in November and December was rainfall close to or above normal. One of the units at the Chaira hydro power plant started up at the end of the year and therefore the plant has little impact on the system.
The wind turbines produced 1.3 TWh of electricity, which is within the normal levels for this sector of the power industry. Unfortunately, no new projects are being added to the system and because of this wind contributes only about 3% to total production.
Base power plants
In 2024, Bulgaria had its weakest year in terms of electricity production and although the energy mix is slightly greener and more sustainable, the overall picture is quite different. It is not that there is not much new capacity - there is more energy from solar, although not enough. The real issue is that coal is producing less, and hydro is suffering due to drought. Meanwhile, nuclear continues to have a growing share due to the overall decline. The total electricity generated in 2024 was 37.9 TWh, 5% less than the previous year. And given the other data, it can be said that there is a noticeable decline in coal production, which is not being replaced by anything.
One of the significant factors at play is that, with the expiry of its long-term contract with the National Electric Company (NEK), ContourGlobal Maritsa-East 3 TPP stopped work at the beginning of the year. The plant is the second largest in the country with over 900 MW of capacity.
Prices are still high
While electricity prices in the first half of 2024 stayed stable and lower than in the previous two years, the energy market reversed trend in the autumn and was far from "normal." Prices in Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania and Hungary were often higher than in the rest of Europe due to lower production (mainly in Romania). Other reasons include exports to Ukraine, which have increased because of the blows to the system from the Russians and greater cross-border capacity with the EU.
In Bulgaria, the average price for the year is exactly 200 BGN/MWh, with the highest values in the last two months and in the summer - the periods of higher demand. These also turned out to be the times when the coal-fired power plants worked more. But they remain highly dependent on the market and on the price being high enough to cover their costs.
Carbon allowance prices stayed lower throughout the year, hovering around 70 euro per tonne most of the time. With higher prices in 2025, it will be harder for the TPPs to operate.
Continued decline in electricity generation, mostly due to the halting of thermal power plant (TPP) production, record low electricity exports, slight increase in consumption and a boom in solar power. This, in a nutshell, is how 2024 can be summed up for the Bulgarian energy sector.
According to data from the Electricity System Operator shared with Capital weekly, the country produced 5% less electricity during the year, driven mostly by cuts in coal power plants.
