In June, Bulgaria produced more electricity from solar than from any other power plants, with the exception of the Kozloduy NPP. More than wind parks, hydro plants and the coal sector. This means that Bulgaria has achieved a greener energy mix with almost no planning - a fact that might bring problems in the future.
In June, overall green electricity provided 43% of all generation, leading to multiple balancing issues. During most of June, PV was curtailed due to grid congestion, and there were also problems with ultra high balancing prices. And although the first medium-sized solar power plant with batteries started operation, the only really large battery - Chaira pumped storage - has been switched off since the beginning of the year. For the time being, this balancing role in the evening is filled by the coal TPPs.
Data for June also shows that the country is once again a net importer of electricity and if a comparison is to be made for the first 6 months, it certainly loses its role as a net exporter of electricity in the Balkans. It was still in surplus, but by very little, being an importer for 4 months of the first half of the year.
The development of the energy mix in the country is increasingly important in relation to climate change because the meteorological environment and consumption are changing. This June, the average temperature was 23 degrees (over 3 degrees above normal), which is above normal even for July and August.
The first half
During the first 6 months of 2024, Kozloduy NPP had a record low output compared to previous years. The nuclear plant has been experiencing increasingly frequent problems, with the whole of June operating with only one unit. In the first half of the year, the NPP produced 7.7 tWh, while output is traditionally 5-10% higher.
This also leads to an overall decline in electricity production in the country. For June, it was at its lowest since 2019.
At the same time, solar plants hold a 25% share of production, while coal plants - 17%. And while thermal power plants maintain their share on an annual basis, solar production has doubled.
Overall, PV produced 24% more month-on-month and 62% year-on-year because of new capacities. June is traditionally among the best for solar because of the longer days.
In reality, the production could have been even higher, but the panels were curtailed by the TSO due to grid congestion and lack of higher demand at midday.
The lower production is also due to a collapse of around ¼ on an annual and monthly basis for hydropower plants. The hydroelectric plants were working much less despite the rains in May.
Coal and prices
In June, electricity prices jumped at times to levels not seen since 2022. The specific reason was a series of accidents in the Western Balkans, but also the change in production and demand, which makes countries more dependent on each other. In general, prices in the region and in Bulgaria are rising, and the reason lies in production and demand rather than external factors such as natural gas prices.
Prices in Bulgaria reached an average of 191 levs per MWh in June, which is the highest average price on the exchange this year. It is likely that this trend will continue during the remaining summer months, especially given the uncertainty of when the 6th unit of the NPP will be restarted.
By all accounts, the biggest losers for the half-year are coal-fired plants. Their production for June fell by 12% month-on-month and 19% year-on-year. Compared to the first half of 2023, they worked at half capacity, and compared to the crisis year 2022 - at less than a third of capacity. At the same time, their share in the country's energy mix has fallen from 33 to 17% since January. The reason is that the other electricity sources are cheaper, which makes thermal power plants unprofitable, and even with the higher prices in June, their work output once again did not increase.
In June, Bulgaria produced more electricity from solar than from any other power plants, with the exception of the Kozloduy NPP. More than wind parks, hydro plants and the coal sector. This means that Bulgaria has achieved a greener energy mix with almost no planning - a fact that might bring problems in the future.
In June, overall green electricity provided 43% of all generation, leading to multiple balancing issues. During most of June, PV was curtailed due to grid congestion, and there were also problems with ultra high balancing prices. And although the first medium-sized solar power plant with batteries started operation, the only really large battery - Chaira pumped storage - has been switched off since the beginning of the year. For the time being, this balancing role in the evening is filled by the coal TPPs.
