Minor direct and unclear indirect consequences - this is what Bulgarian manufacturers expect from the effects of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on the EU. The extremely fluid situation in which world trade currently finds itself makes a more precise assessment impossible. In any case, however, the difficulty of access to the US market - not only for European goods, but also for goods from almost everywhere - will inevitably affect industry. Trump's protectionist policies will also hit US investment abroad, and there is already a case of a project in Europe being canceled in favor of the US.
Where is Bulgaria in the big picture?
Fortunately, the US is not a key export destination for Bulgarian goods - according to the Economy Ministry, around 2.5% of local exports go there. This includes mainly electrical and electronics products, food (including animal feed), sunflower seeds, essential oils, medicines, and metals such as steel, copper, and aluminum. However, Bulgarian companies work for many foreign partners - for example, in the automotive industry, which, in turn, sell the finished products in the US. And market restrictions there will also affect orders for domestic manufacturers.
Overall, however, the impact will not be strong, economists believe. "I do not expect a direct significant negative effect on Bulgaria, at least at this stage, given that direct exports to the US are very low," said Dimitar Zlatinov, lecturer at the Faculty of Economics of Sofia University. He says that a greater effect may arise from Bulgarian trade being largely oriented towards the eurozone area. "The sectors that will be affected in the country are those that supply raw materials and supplies to Germany and Italy, which are our leading eurozone trading partners," he said. He added that issues arising from the expected adoption of the euro were much more relevant at this stage than international trade wars: "They can be used in a purely speculative way and as a reason for higher inflation in our country and an increase in the prices of some goods, such as Apple products for example, but they don't necessarily constitute a lead-up to economic difficulties."
What comes next for metal producers?
There are two steel producers in Bulgaria - Steel Industries in Pernik, which is part of the Greek group Viohalco, and Promet Steil in the village of Debelt near Burgas, which is owned by the Ukrainian Metinvest. While the Pernik plant exports virtually nothing to the US - there have been only sporadic deliveries in recent years - Promet Steil is directly affected by the new customs regulations, said Nikola Rangelov, chairman of the Bulgarian Association of Metallurgical Industry (BAMI). "Even right now the company has a batch (in stock and on the tracks) produced on a company's order for the US that cannot be shipped, and another ordered again for there has not been started at all given the developments," he said. In 2024, exports to the US were around 20%. Shipments to Canada are also difficult because of tariffs there. That's why Promet Steil is now mainly looking for markets in Bulgaria, Romania, and other neighboring countries.
However, the problem in steel production is the availability of significant capacities. Around 2 billion tonnes are produced annually worldwide, of which around 55% are produced in China, India, Japan, the USA, Russia, South Korea, Germany, Turkey, Brazil, and Iran. There are "dormant" steelmaking plants around the world that can be started up and that have the annual capacity to produce quantities 4-5 times the EU's annual output, Rangelov said.
There are also two main producers of aluminum products in Bulgaria. These include the Sofia plant of the two joint ventures of Greece's Etem (also part of Viohalco) and Spain's Gestamp, which works mainly for the automotive industry, but there is no information on its markets. The other key manufacturer is Alkomet in Shumen, which has been actively developing the US market in recent years. As of 2024, about 20% of production is for export to the US, although the share has been declining in the first months of this year. According to Rangelov, the EU, and Bulgaria in particular, has enough aluminum safeguards against China to prevent massive cheap imports from there, but not so with Turkey.
Although the US is a net importer of copper, the metal is also taxed under the common regime. Bulgaria's largest producer, Aurubis, does not sell its own produce as these go through German owner Aurubis and follow London Metal Exchange prices. Sofia Copper exports less than 10% of its production to the US. Rangelov commented that, overall, there is a shortage of the metal on the world market, and the US lacks the capacity to meet its needs with its own producers, or to bring on new capacity quickly. Nor do they have any "dormant" plants, as is the situation with the steelmaking sector. Copper demand is expected to grow by nearly 600% by 2030.
For companies in Bulgaria, a possible solution is to redirect their US exports, or at least some of them, to other markets. There is also potential in defense manufacturing, where Europe is preparing to significantly increase domestic production, as some of the country's plants produce, or have the ability to produce, alloys for the military industry, Rangelov points out.
Manufacturers will have to sit it out
There are many more unknowns for the automotive component factories in Bulgaria, which work for large European companies with exports (of mostly luxury cars) to the US. A representative from the sector says that at this stage the effect of the duties cannot be assessed and at least a month will have to pass before it's possible to do so. "The effect will be delayed because there are stocks in the chain. Besides, the chains in the auto industry are long, passing through several countries, and it is not yet clear how exactly the duties will be calculated," he told Capital Weekly. However, he added that in any case, the rise in car prices in the US would reduce sales for European manufacturers. Currently, the company is not reporting any effect on orders because of the tariffs - some brands are down but others are up, the source said.
At this stage, the duties are not expected to affect medical equipment manufacturers, which is one of the largest items in Bulgarian exports to the US. "In principle, medical equipment is not taxed; this is the world practice. For the moment we do not know what will happen, but if the US decides to introduce duties, this will naturally affect us," said Georgi Petkov, chairman of the board of directors of Btl Industries. The Plovdiv-based company manufactures various devices for cardiology, physiotherapy, and aesthetic medicine, and its main market is the US, although it sells to more than 150 countries worldwide.
Outside the US customs hit, however, remains one of its niche export products - investment coins. These are produced by the Plovdiv-based Bulmint One, which has been focusing on the US market for several years and is actively expanding its sales there. "In 2024, exports to the USA accounted for a significant part of our international sales and the trend is growing. We are seeing a steady increase in interest in precious metals investment products, particularly from individual and institutional customers," the company said. It clarified that, at present, investment products and commodities made from gold, silver, and platinum group metals are not under the scope of duty. "This includes both refined materials and investment grade products. Confirmation to this effect has been given by several authoritative international sources," Bulmint One added.
Therefore, the company does not expect a direct impact on the US business. "However, we are closely monitoring the development of trade policy and maintaining constant communication with our trading partners and legal advisors. If changes are required in the future, we will conduct a detailed analysis of options - including optimization of logistics, strategic assessment of pricing policy, and potential search for alternative markets," the company concluded.
Minor direct and unclear indirect consequences - this is what Bulgarian manufacturers expect from the effects of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on the EU. The extremely fluid situation in which world trade currently finds itself makes a more precise assessment impossible. In any case, however, the difficulty of access to the US market - not only for European goods, but also for goods from almost everywhere - will inevitably affect industry. Trump's protectionist policies will also hit US investment abroad, and there is already a case of a project in Europe being canceled in favor of the US.
