Over 40% of businesses expect 2025 to be worse – BIA survey

Over 40% of businesses expect 2025 to be worse – BIA survey

Glavchev’s caretaker cabinet has the approval of 21% of respondents, the judiciary garners only 1%, trust in parliament stands at 0%

© Tsvetelina Belutova


A predominantly negative assessment of the business climate and the state of companies, combined with uncertainty and a lack of predictability for the future, are some of the findings of the latest online survey conducted by the Bulgarian Industrial Association (BIA). Held between November 5 and December 6, 2024, it covered 738 companies.

"Only 15% of respondents see an improvement in the business climate and 24% report better conditions in their companies. Optimism among managers is minimal. The survey period was before the caretaker government submitted its 2025 budget proposal. Had the survey been conducted after that, optimism would have been even lower," summarized Dobri Mitrev, chairman of the BIA.

Familiar problems exacerbated by political uncertainty

The survey highlighted the major barriers to business: labor shortages, bureaucracy and regulatory burden, frequently changing legislation, and corruption. Political instability following seven inconclusive general elections in three and a half years has become a significant additional challenge.

Other key problems include inefficient judiciary, poor quality of administrative servicesand insufficient electronic services. One-third of respondents also cited poor infrastructure and negative attitudes toward businesses as issues. For one-fifth the shadow economy was a concern, while 17% pointed to deteriorating market conditions and the lack of markets.

The government's plans to increase the minimum wage are expected to increase inflationary pressures, with 33% of respondents saying they would incorporate the additional costs into product and service prices. Some 16% would be forced to increase all wages, while 11% would raise only the lowest wages, keeping the others unchanged. Only 8% stated that the minimum wage increase would not pose a problem, while 31% said the wage hike would be unsustainable, potentially leading to layoffs, canceled investments or even relocating operations abroad.

Institutional ratings

The most approved institutions are the presidency (40%), the municipal administrations (37%) and the tax administration (36%). The Glavchev cabinet has the approval of 21% of respondents, the judiciary garners only 1% and parliament has 0% trust, BIA's survey shows. Respectively, their disapproval ratings are 90% for parliament, 79% for the government and 73% for the judiciary.

Specialized administrations with notable ratings on the two extremes include the Labor Inspectorate, which has 32% approval, and the Commission on Protection of Competition, which has 45% disapproval.

Plans for 2025

A total of 41% of respondents anticipate an economic downturn in 2025, while 21% expect no change. The biggest fears of businesses are connected with a drastic rise in energy and raw material prices, as well as inflation.

More than half of respondents plan to increase production and expand their product/service ranges. Some 45% will seek new markets. More companies plan to invest in new technologies and capacities as compared to last year. Other priorities include employee development and training and 37% will open new job positions.

A predominantly negative assessment of the business climate and the state of companies, combined with uncertainty and a lack of predictability for the future, are some of the findings of the latest online survey conducted by the Bulgarian Industrial Association (BIA). Held between November 5 and December 6, 2024, it covered 738 companies.

"Only 15% of respondents see an improvement in the business climate and 24% report better conditions in their companies. Optimism among managers is minimal. The survey period was before the caretaker government submitted its 2025 budget proposal. Had the survey been conducted after that, optimism would have been even lower," summarized Dobri Mitrev, chairman of the BIA.

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