- Local companies are not currently concerned about President Trump's trade policies, but they are aware that higher tariffs could reduce their competitiveness.
- In the approaching tougher global environment, Bulgaria must strengthen its relations with the U.S. and seize opportunities to attract investments.
- In 2023, U.S. companies invested 514 million dollars (963 million levs) in Bulgaria, creating 10,908 jobs.
In the broader context of transatlantic relations, Bulgaria plays a small role-its goods exports to the U.S. account for just 0.23% of the EU's total exports across the Atlantic. However, from Sofia's standpoint, economic relations with the U.S. carry greater weight and are poised to be impacted by the new trade policies under President Donald Trump.
Net export advantage
Bulgaria maintains a trade surplus with the U.S., exporting more goods and services than it imports. In 2023, U.S. business investments in Bulgaria reached 514 million dollars (963 million levs), ranking sixth among foreign investors, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Bulgaria. These companies provide 10,908 jobs, with a significant share in export-oriented industries producing high-value-added goods.
For Bulgarian companies that view the U.S. as a key market, there is no immediate alarm over a potential trade war. Many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, gauging the likelihood and scale of President Trump's tariff threats. Some acknowledge that higher tariffs would increase pricing pressures but are committed to maintaining their presence in the U.S. market.
In 2023, the U.S. ranked as Bulgaria's tenth-largest export market for goods, with sales valued at 1.14 billion euro (2.2 billion levs), or 2.5% of Bulgaria's total exports. Excluding EU member states, the U.S. is Bulgaria's second-largest export destination after Turkey, accounting for about 7% of exports to non-EU countries.
However, indirect consequences could outweigh the direct impact of higher tariffs. Bulgaria's economy is deeply integrated into the supply chains of major European economies like Germany and Italy, which would face stronger disruptions from U.S. trade policies. According to the American Chamber of Commerce in Bulgaria, Bulgaria's effective export exposure to the U.S., including its supply chain role, is approximately 6.6%. Any slowdown in Western Europe's leading industries could trickle down to Bulgaria's export-oriented manufacturers.
Businesses' perspectives
Kyashif, a Bulgarian producer of hydraulic cylinders, exports indirectly to the U.S. through European and American manufacturers of agricultural and construction equipment. An introduction of tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% would automatically increase the cost of its products, reducing competitiveness. "We monitor the market closely to understand what our potential customers across the Atlantic might be willing to pay," Kyashif Kyashif, the company's manager, tells the Capital Weekly.
Most businesses contacted by Capital Weekly see no immediate threat of a trade war between the EU and the U.S. For example, BTL Industries, a manufacturer of medical equipment, does not expect higher U.S. tariffs to impact its sales. "Our products are high-value-added goods, largely unaffected by such measures, especially as they fall within the medical sector, which rarely faces tariffs," said Georgi Petkov, a board member.
Similarly, aluminum producer Alcomet views the U.S. as a strategic market and remains committed to serving its clients there despite the potential for increased tariffs. "We are prepared to adapt our business strategy, whether by optimizing costs, redirecting production to other regions, or improving supply chain efficiency," the company said.
Strengthening economic diplomacy
In the face of growing global trade challenges and Europe's declining competitiveness, Bulgaria must strengthen its ties with the U.S., address domestic issues, and step up attracting new investments. Bulgarian economic diplomacy will play a crucial role in this effort, says Ivan Mihaylov, Chairman of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce.
"It is essential to revive economic contacts through local companies, honorary consuls, and other channels. We must also appoint trade attachés to the U.S. as planned, with at least four representatives based on the East and West Coasts, as well as in Texas and Illinois," Mihaylov emphasized.
Furthermore, Bulgaria should leverage opportunities for collaboration with the U.S. in areas such as research and development, partnerships with the U.S. Space Force, and offset projects tied to military modernization, including the acquisition of eight F-16 Block 70 fighter jets for the Bulgarian Air Force.
"To be seen as an attractive investment destination, Bulgaria must invest in education, workforce retraining, and digitalization," Mihaylov added. "This will allow us to stand out and foster collaboration with foreign capital to develop 21st-century products and services."
- Local companies are not currently concerned about President Trump's trade policies, but they are aware that higher tariffs could reduce their competitiveness.
- In the approaching tougher global environment, Bulgaria must strengthen its relations with the U.S. and seize opportunities to attract investments.
- In 2023, U.S. companies invested 514 million dollars (963 million levs) in Bulgaria, creating 10,908 jobs.
In the broader context of transatlantic relations, Bulgaria plays a small role-its goods exports to the U.S. account for just 0.23% of the EU's total exports across the Atlantic. However, from Sofia's standpoint, economic relations with the U.S. carry greater weight and are poised to be impacted by the new trade policies under President Donald Trump.
