Bulgarian Exports Recovering with a 7.4% Rise in July

However, this has not been enough to compensate for the earlier poor performance. In the first seven months, Bulgarian exports reached 49.7 billion levs, according to preliminary data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI), which is 1.5 billion levs less compared to the same period last year (a 2.9% decline). Sales to the European market have fallen more sharply, by 3.5%, and exports to non-EU countries have also declined. Figures for exports to the EU are typically revised with the release of more complete data a month later.

The lower export figures this year come after a period of record highs immediately following the pandemic that were driven by high energy and food prices. In part, this decline can be attributed to the unusually high comparison base. "What we are seeing now is more of a return to more sustainable levels of exports," Yasen Georgiev, Executive Director of the Economic Policy Institute, tells Capital Weekly. The noticeable drop in exports to the EU and third countries, especially in sectors like machinery and components, largely explains why industrial production in the country has been struggling in recent months.

Fewer foods, more fuels and metals

As of mid-2024, revenues from exports of goods by Bulgarian enterprises amounted to 41.8 billion levs, or about 2 billion levs less than a year earlier. The most significant drop was seen in food and animal sales, with 1.1 billion levs less revenue than in the first half of last year. Machinery and equipment, the largest group, also saw a substantial decline of over 700 million levs.

Revenues from exports of natural fats and oils, raw materials, chemicals, various finished products, and other goods and transactions decreased by 200-250 million levs each. This was partially offset by growth in fuel and electricity exports and also in the category of 'articles classified by material type' (the bulk of which are metals and metal products). Bulgaria's top five trading partners in the first half of the year were Germany, Romania, Italy, Turkey, and Greece.

Weak economic growth and business activity in the EU, where Bulgarian companies sell about two-thirds of their production, continue to weigh down on exports. The decline registered earlier in the year is also partly due to lower prices, as exports are measured nominally by sales value. In January-March, the latest period for which NSI export price index data is available, prices were down by 5.6% compared to the 2023 average. Almost all product groups saw lower prices, with the most significant decreases observed in natural oils and fats, chemicals, and electricity.